This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
PGA Championship Betting Preview
The second major championship of the year is upon us as the PGA of America heads back to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, host of the 2017 PGA Championship which saw Justin Thomas capture his first major trophy. 20 PGA golf professionals and 16 LIV golfers are part of the 156-player field that is headlined by tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler at +425 odds. Last year, Xander Schauffele (12-1) won by one stroke over Bryson DeChambeau for his maiden major victory.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.
Course Overview
Par 71, 7,626 yards
These are the average rankings of champions at Quail Hollow since 2021.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 13.0
- SG: Approach: 5.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 29.3
- SG: Putting: 4.7
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.7
- Driving Distance: 7.3
- Driving Accuracy: 66.0
The PGA Championship has traditionally favored distance more than the other major venues, and stretching out over 7,600 yards, Quail Hollow is no different. It's a mammoth of a course with five of the par-4s playing over 480 yards and doesn't require much strategy off the tee with players usually forced to pull driver. The length shouldn't imply that there aren't scoring opportunities as there are some scoring chances in the middle of the round as holes 7, 8, 10, 14 and 15 all played under par last year. That precedes the 'Green Mile' - a difficult three-hole closing stretch that includes two long par-4s sandwiched in-between the par-3 17th over water. As we can see from the metrics above, ball striking is a key factor here and there's much more of a premium on distance over accuracy as water only comes into play on a few holes and there isn't a huge penalty in missing fairways. Excessive rain early this week will make the course soft and play even longer as well. Overall, I'm looking for bombers, those who approach it well from 175-225 yards, golfers that rank well in bogey avoidance and ideally those have shown prior success at the venue or in majors.
Quail Hollow Standouts
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Quail Hollow over the last four years.
- Xander Schauffele: 68.6
- Rory McIlroy: 68.8
- Tommy Fleetwood: 69.8
- Adam Scott: 69.9
- Gary Woodland: 70.1
The defending PGA champion has enjoyed his trips to Charlotte although they've yet to result in a win. Schauffele has been runner-up to dominating performances by Rory McIlroy and Wyndham Clark the last two years at Quail Hollow and led the field in SG: Approach here last year. Schauffele has struggled with his accuracy off the tee in his return from injury, but the rest of his game is in good form. Diving much farther down the odds board we find another major champion in Woodland, who has two top-5s at the venue, most recently in 2021 and was also T14 here two years ago. He's played much better over the last several months, notably finishing one shot back at the Houston Open and was eighth in SG: Approach in last week's Signature Event. He's a good option for placements bets or as a low-cost DFS choice.
Best Ball Strikers
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 2.21
- Collin Morikawa: 1.85
- Patrick Cantlay: 1.73
- Rory McIlroy: 1.67
- Sepp Straka: 1.59
Scheffler snapped his winless 'drought' of eight tournaments in his home state two weeks ago by a whopping eight shots as he eyes his first major win since last year's Masters Tournament. The only question mark is that Scheffler has never played at the venue before, but when you do everything as well as he does, it's hard to find a bad course fit. Meanwhile, McIlroy is the only player to appear on both lists, and the three-time Tour winner this year and four-time champion at Quail Hollow has a lot going for him heading into the event. He didn't seem to have his best stuff at the Truist last week but still managed his fourth consecutive individual top-10. McIlroy's driving dominance will give him a huge leg up on the field as he comes in with 5-1 odds.
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PGA Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Collin Morikawa (25-1)
We can see from the stats above that only Scheffler has better ball-striking numbers recently than Morikawa, and he's been incredibly consistent in majors with seven consecutive top-20s. A former winner of this event, he also had a top-5 at Valhalla last year.
Brooks Koepka (45-1)
The attention is off Koepka in majors as he's underperformed in them since last year. However, the 45-1 number is too tempting to pass up for the three-time PGA champion who clearly loves these setups. Koepka won twice on LIV last year, so you can't overlook his ability to win when he gets in contention.
Viktor Hovland (50-1)
Here's another number being dangled in front of me that is to good to pass up. Much like Koepka, it's difficult to discern which Hovland is going to show up. But this is a guy that's won this year, and his two best major finishes have both come at PGA setups. He also finished T3 at Quail Hollow in 2021.
PGA Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Min Woo Lee (5-1)
One would think elite distance and a strong short game would come in handy at a long and difficult venue, and Lee has both. Despite being 26-years-old and only on the PGA Tour scene for a couple years, he already has six top-25s in majors.
Sam Burns (13-2)
Burns has always been one of the best putters on Tour and is now first in the category this year. Combine that with good length off the tee, a top-5 two weeks ago and a T13 here last year and there's a lot to like.
Nicolai Hojgaard (12-1)
One longshot to keep an eye on is the 24-year-old Hojgaard, who has a pair of top-25s over his last six majors. He's one of the longer hitters on Tour with a good long-iron game to go with it. That's a great combo as he looks to have a strong summer to secure another Ryder Cup selection.
PGA Championship Bets: To Miss The Cut
Ludvig Aberg (3-1)
Aberg has finished in the bottom half of the field in four of his last five events, including a T54 and a T60 amongst 72-player fields in two Signature Events since The Masters. Surprisingly, he's only gaining strokes off the tee this year. He also missed the cut at last year's PGA Championship.
Jon Rahm (+360)
The PGA Championship has historically been Rahm's worst major, with his only top-5 coming at Bellerive back in 2018. He last played at Quail Hollow in 2021, in which he missed the cut. Rahm hasn't quite looked like himself in the majors since joining LIV, so I'm comfortable fading him this week.
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