The American Express Betting Preview
The first of four events in California commences with this week's The American Express in La Quinta. The 156-player field will rotate between three courses Thursday-Saturday: Pete Dye's Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course with a 54-hole cut and the final round being played on the Stadium Course. The event draws its best ever field with nine of the top-20 players in the OWGR, headlined by World No. 1 and tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler at +290. Last year, Sepp Straka (65-1) outlasted Justin Thomas by two strokes for his third Tour victory.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Wednesday
Course Overview
Stadium: Par 72, 7,210 yards; La Quinta: Par 72, 7,060 yards; Nicklaus: Par 72, 7,141 yards
These are the average rankings of The American Express champions over the last five years:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 27.4
- SG: Approach: 9.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 28.2
- SG: Putting: 18.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 13.4
- Driving Distance: 25.2
- Driving Accuracy: 30.6
I'll mainly focus on the Stadium Course for the breakdown as two of the four rounds will be played there and it's the only venue with strokes gained data. Probably the easiest event scoring-wise all season, the winning score has averaged 25-under with La Quinta and Nicklaus TC playing over two shots easier per round than the Stadium Course. All three venues are short by Tour standards at roughly 7,200 yards or less with four par-5s. Off the tee, players are faced with fairways that average a reasonable 34 yards wide and are surrounded by minimal rough. While that's advantageous to the longer hitters, the Stadium Course has water in play on five driving holes that players will have to be wary of. Overall, I prefer targeting birdie makers, quality putters and those that approach it well from inside 125 yards and we'll see a lot of wedge approaches this week.
Best in the Desert
The following five golfers have the lowest scoring average at The American Express since 2021:
- Nick Dunlap: 66.8
- Ben Griffin: 67.0
- Davis Thompson: 67.3
- Patrick Cantlay: 67.4
- Si Woo Kim: 67.6
2024 champion Dunlap tops the list as the amateur at the time shocked the golf world by shooting 29-under to win by one and led to the then 20-year-old to turn professional. Things haven't been as smooth sailing since, with his OWGR dropping from a peak of 30 down to 177th currently. Nevertheless, he's shot under-par in all eight rounds at the event and his main weakness of being sporadic off the tee is negated somewhat here. Another player that's shown form at the event is Thompson (80-1 odds), who finished runner-up by a single shot to Jon Rahm as a rookie in 2023. He's also coming off a disappointing campaign in which struggles with his short game led to him missing the playoffs. His quality ball-striking makes him a bounce back candidate this year, and this is a place that could definitely jump start that effort.
Approach Artists
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.68
- Rico Hoey: 1.04
- Russell Henley: 0.90
- Justin Rose: 0.82
- Nick Dunlap: 0.70
Scheffler is coming off another remarkable season that was highlighted by 12 consecutive top-10s to close the year including a whopping six victories. Iron play was a key reason why, as he gained over a half stroke per round on approach over the third ranked player (!) in the category. Surprisingly, Scheffler only has one top-10 in five trips to La Quinta, giving the rest of the field some hope. We don't have to go too far down the betting board to find Henley, who is tied for the fourth choice at 25-1 odds. He extended his streak of top-20s to nine last week in Hawaii, where he ranked fifth in approach. The veteran last played the event in 2022 where he finished T14, and it's hard to overlook him and courses that don't highlight his lack of distance.
The American Express Bets: Outright Picks
Ben Griffin (20-1)
Even with Scottie in the field, I'm going to be drawn to Griffin at this price in a non-signature event. He's coming off back-to-back top-10s here and won three times last year including two starts back. Note that most sportsbooks offer an outright market that excludes Scheffler with odds dropping about 20 percent (Griffin is 16-1 without Scheffler).
Si Woo Kim (35-1)
Kim has played some of his best golf at this event, where he won in 2021 and has posted five top-25s across eight appearances. He led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green last week, but a shaky putter led to a T11.
Nick Taylor (90-1)
This is the time of year where Taylor tends to thrive. Three of his five Tour victories and two of his playoff losses have come prior to the Florida Swing. Taylor's T12 finish here last year was his best result at the event.
The American Express Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Patrick Rodgers (11-2)
It was a good start to the year with placement bets as Bridgeman cashed at 7-1 for me in Hawaii. I'll start this week off with Rodgers, who comes into the event with plenty of momentum having posted a top-10 finish in three of his last four starts. The veteran is clicking with all aspects of the game right now.
Max Homa (13-2)
There's no way around it – the last two years have been rough for Homa. But he seemed to find something towards the end of 2025, making the cut in all four fall events with three top-20s and a top-10 in Utah. He's skipped the event the last few years but is a California native with a T21 in his last start here.
Max McGreevy (17-2)
McGreevy lost nearly four strokes on the greens at Waialae to miss the cut by two, but his game is still in good form following back-to-back top-5s to close 2025. The 30-year-old is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour and playing some of the best golf of his career.
The American Express Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Michael Thorbjornsen (-110) over Harris English
Thorbjornsen is one of my breakout candidates heading into the year coming off a strong second half of 2025 that included four top-5s since April and a T7 at the season-ending RSM Classic. We know he can go low as he ranked eighth in birdie or better percentage last year. I'll take him over English, who has modest results at the event and zero top-10s across nine appearances.
Rickie Fowler (-115) over Daniel Berger
I'm intrigued by Fowler's potential this year as a lot of people have written him off. Sure, the elite results were lacking last year, but he closed the playoffs with back-to-back top-10s and has three top-25s across his last six trips to the desert. Meanwhile, Berger struggled mightily with his short game last season and finished the year with zero top-25s across his final 10 starts.
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