DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational Cash and GPP Strategy

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL

Purse: $20M 
Winner's Share: $4M 
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the Winner 
Location: Orlando, Fla. 
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge 
Yardage: 7,466
Par: 72
2025 champion: Russell Henley

Tournament Preview

Scottie Scheffler led the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average -- and just about everything -- the last three seasons. That makes what has happened in his past three tournaments borderline ridiculous -- and certainly a storyline heading into the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Scheffler opened with a 2-over 73 at Phoenix, an even-par 72 at Pebble Beach and a 3-over 74 at Riviera. He flirted with the cut in all three events. But in true Scheffler fashion, he charged on the weekend to wind up T3-T4-T12. Seems he could've won all three with a good Thursday.

Heading into Bay Hill, Scheffler's cut streak has extended to 68, but his stretch of top-10s ended at 18 -- the longest such streak on Tour in some six decades.

Asked on Friday at Riviera what was going on, he said: "I mean, I would not say anything in particular. I think in both the last two, teeing off late is never the easiest and I've gotten off to slow starts."

Scheffler didn't really expand on that, didn't really say anything in the first place. He certainly didn't disclose if it was, say, his driver or his grip or anything. He's often said it's hard to fix things during a tournament. After taking last week off following those three consecutive starts, you can be sure he spent his time in Texas trying to figure out what the heck is going on.

For the record, Scheffler hasn't missed a cut since the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship, but he still has a ways to go -- like the better part of four seasons -- to catch up to Tiger Woods and his whopping 142 straight.

Mind you, none of this has swayed the fine folks over at DraftKings in the slightest. He's priced at $14,100 in DFS and +345 at the Sportsbook.

This might be a good time to point out that Scheffler won two of the past four Arnold Palmer Invitationals.

Scheffler and Rory McIlroy head the field of 72 in the third Signature Event in four weeks, with THE PLAYERS Championship on tap next. As with the Genesis two weeks ago, there will be a cut at the top 50 and ties, plus those within 10 shots of the lead.

As the Signature Events come fast and furious this time of year, and the top portions of fields are largely stagnant, the API will get an additional jolt with the return of two injured players: Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im. Neither has played so far this season, Thomas after undergoing offseason back surgery and Im because of a right hand/wrist injury.

Last year at this time, the big news entering Bay Hill wasn't who was playing but who wasn't. Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler, still two of the handful of most popular players on the PGA Tour, were not given sponsor's invites. Golf Twitter was in a lather, if you can believe that. So unlike Golf Twitter!

But fear not. Spieth did get a sponsor's invite this time around while Fowler made it into the field the old fashioned way -- he qualified. Besides Spieth, the other invites this year are Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk and Max Greyserman.

Bay Hill is among the hardest courses golfers will see all year, ranking top-10 in difficulty the past six years. It was the seventh hardest last year, when Russell Henley won at 11-under-par and Scheffler tied for 11th at 4-under. Two years ago, Scheffler did get to 15-under, a high winning score here, though he was five clear of runner-up Wyndham Clark. Three years ago, Kurt Kitayama won at 9-under and in 2022 it was Scheffler at 5-under.

At 7,400-plus yards, Bay Hill is kind of long, but it is a par-72. There are some very long holes. All four par-3s are 200-plus yards and there are five par-4s over 450, including the famed 458-yard 18th. Last year, the three hardest holes were par-3s: in order, the 215-yard 14th, 221-yard 17th and 231-yard second. The fourth hardest hole was No. 18.

All that means long iron play is important and how difficult the finishing stretch is. That also tells us something about the par-5s. Three of the four are under 575 yards, one a mere 511, all are gettable in normal conditions and the golfers probably have to make a big dent in them if they hope to win. In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau shot 10-under on the par-5s and just 1-under on the rest of the course.

They widened the fairways in 2015, so golfers can really let fly off the tee, though water is in play on half the holes. The bermudagrass greens are large at an average of 7,500 square feet and fast at 12 on the Stimpmeter.

As for lineup construction, since 70-plus percent of the field will make the cut, that gives you a much greater chance to get all six of your guys through to the weekend. That lends support to an imbalanced lineup approach because numerous $6000s will make the cut. So if you want to get two or even three of the top guys in your lineup, don't fear dipping down low to fill it out.

As for the weather, it will be hot. High temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 80s all week. There's a chance of rain every day, though not much. More importantly, the wind will be double-digit mph through Sunday.

API Interesting Factoids: Bay Hill marks the beginning of the Open Qualifying Series in the United States for the 154th Open at Royal Birkdale in July. There is one spot for a golfer not already exempt. Future PGA Tour events with Open berths on the line are the Memorial (one spot) and Canadian Open (three), and the Scottish Open the week before Portrush, with three available.

API Fun Factoids: Gary Koch, formerly with NBC, was a two-time winner, in 1977 and 1984, and Paul Azinger, also formerly with NBC, won in 1988. Koch still holds the final-round scoring record of 63 set in 1984. Palmer himself won the tournament in 1971, when it was called the Florida Citrus Invitational and played at Rio Pinar Country Club. Palmer hauled in all of $30,000 for his one-stroke win over Julius Boros.

Key Stats to Winning at Bay Hill

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting 
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling 
• Par-3 Efficiency 200-225 yards
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards
• Par-5 Efficiency 550-600 yards

Past Champions

2025 - Russell Henley
2024 - Scottie Scheffler 
2023 - Kurt Kitayama 
2022 - Scottie Scheffler 
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau 
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton
2019 - Francesco Molinari 
2018 - Rory McIlroy
2017 - Marc Leishman 
2016 - Jason Day

Champion's Profile

In the past nine years, the winning score exceeded 12-under only twice -- Scheffler at 15-under in 2024 and McIlroy at 18-under in 2018. And as we said, Scheffler won by five.

Henley won last year at 11-under, using a miracle chip-in for eagle on No. 16 to stun Collin Morikawa by one shot. He used an all-around strong game, which is what you need at Bay Hill. He ranked 21st in SG: Off-the-Tee, 22nd in Approach, first in Around-the-Green and 10th in Putting. He also ranked second in greens in regulation and T34 in driving accuracy, while only 50th in distance.

Morikawa ranked an incredible top-6 in all of those stats across the board -- except SG: Putting, where he wound up 36th, and driving distance, where he was T33.

Henley racked up eight of his 11-under score on the par-5s. Two years ago, Scheffler put up 12-under of his 15-under there. And as we mentioned above for 2021, DeChambeau got 10 of his 11-under strokes on the par-5s.

As easy as the par-5s are, that's how hard the par-3s are, all 200 yards or more. Henley was 3-under on the par-3s, meaning he played all the par-4s at even for the four days.

In 2021, DeChambeau beat Lee Westwood by one stroke, but he shot 4-under on the par-3s compared to Westwood's 2-over.

This year, the over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com was set at 276.5 -- 11.5 under par. 

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Scottie Scheffler - $14,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +345)
We fully expect Scheffler to figure out his first-round whatevers. And even if he doesn't, he's shown he can contend regardless. The harder courses almost always favor the best players. Bay Hill is one of the hardest courses and Scheffler is the best player. That's why he's won here twice in the past four years.

Rory McIlroy - $11,600 (+920) 
Imagine if it came down to the top two players in the world on the back-nine on Sunday? McIlroy has a sterling record at Bay Hill. He won in 2018, plus finished second, fourth, fifth and sixth. He finished top-15 eight of the past nine years. Any course that puts a premium on distance without overly penalizing accuracy is a McIlroy wheelhouse. As it often does, it come down to McIlroy's putter. He's ranked 77th on Tour in SG: Putting, along with first in Approach and Tee-to-Green.

$9,000-$9,900

Collin Morikawa - $9,600 (+2800) 
Morikawa may feel like Bay Hill owes him one after last year given Henley's miracle chip-in. Crushing losses were a bit of theme during Morikawa's long winless stretch. But of course that ended three weeks ago at Pebble Beach. His game is at elite levels everywhere but on the greens. He does not have to putt great to win this week, just less bad.

Russell Henley - $9,400 (+3300) 
We're always hesitant to tab a defending champion. But Henley won here last year and finished fourth the year before for a reason: His skill set aligns nicely with what Bay Hill requires. Henley surprisingly missed the cut at the Genesis last time out. But he previously registered two top-20s and a top-10 to start the season. His approach game has been just a smidge off -- he's ranked 29th. But he's also 41st in SG: Putting.

$8,000-$8,900

Jake Knapp - $8,600 (+3700) 
The $8,000s have been a danger zone in these Signature Events, in our estimation. Just not a lot to like. Either guys priced too high or just not playing well enough for our liking. Two weeks ago at the Genesis, Knapp was our lone pick in the $8,000s and he finished solo sixth. He's been great all season, no matter the course.

$7,000-$7,900

Jacob Bridgeman - $7,700 (+5700) 
Bridgeman is coming off a win at Riviera and  near-miss at Pebble Beach. Plus he opened the season with a top-5 at the Sony. But he price-setters and oddsmakers remain somewhat skeptical. Not us. How can we be? Bridgeman is ranked ninth on Tour in SG: Approach and first in SG: Putting.

Akshay Bhatia - $7,500 (+5900) 
Bhatia is looking for a far better season than 2025 was. So far, so good. He notched top-10s at both Phoenix and Pebble Beach, then added a tie for 16th at Riviera. His game has been good or better across the strokes-gained spectrum, highlighted by a ranking of 24th in Approach and 35th in Tee-to-Green. Bhatia made his Bay Hill debut last year and missed the cut, but that doesn't scare us off, obviously.

Sepp Straka - $7,400 (+6600) 
Straka's game is so solid everywhere but on the greens. And even there, it's midrange. That's the type of player we like at Bay Hill, a course that requires the proverbial every club  in the bag. This will be Straka's seventh go-round here. While he missed the cut his first four tries, he tied for fifth last year. He had a top-20 at Phoenix and was co-runner-up at Pebble.

Nicolai Hojgaard - $7,200 (+6300) 
Hojgaard continues to show that 2026 may be different for him than his first two PGA Tour seasons. He made a Sunday charge to tie for sixth at the Cognizant. That followed a tie for third at Phoenix and a top-25 at Torrey Pines. Hojgaard is ranked 10th on Tour in Off-the-Tee, 11th in Approach, sixth in Tee-to-Green and 37th n Putting. He missed the cut in his first two tripes to Bay Hill. But it's pretty clear we need to discount the past.

$6,000-$6,900

Corey Conners - $6,900 (+7600) 
We identified Conners as a player we liked even before the DK prices came out. We guestimated he could be in the mid-$7,000s. So this price makes him a full go. Conners is off to a slow start in 2026, with just one top-25 -- and in the season-opening Sony, at that. But his strong ball striking makes him a good fit for Bay Hill. He's finished top-25 here five years running with two T3s, including last year.

Patrick Rodgers - $6,400 (+14000) 
This will be Rodgers' 11th straight appearance at the API. He has four top-25s through the years, including the past two years when it was a Signature Event. Rodgers is 6-for-6 in cuts so far this season. He's not elite in any one area, but is pretty strong is every discipline but driving accuracy. Bay Hill tends to be forgiving in that regard. 

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