This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Truist Championship Betting Preview
We're just one week away from the second major of the year and this week's tune-up is a signature event for the Truist Championship at The Wissahickon Course at The Philadelphia Cricket Club. Traditionally held at Quail Hollow which is hosting next week's PGA Championship, the PGA Tour is heading to Philadelphia and to a first-time Tour venue with a field of 72 players for a no-cut event. After cruising to an eight-stroke victory last week, Scottie Scheffler is taking the week off and Rory McIlroy headlines as the tournament favorite at 4-1 odds. Last year, McIlroy (13-2) won by five strokes over Xander Schauffele for his second victory of the season.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Philadelphia CC is a par-70 at 7,119 yards and while we don't have any prior data to draw from, we can see that this is a short course by Tour standards. Half of the par-4s play under 430 yards and the two par-5s should be reachable in two for everyone in the field. One of the things that stands out is that there are a ton of bunkers throughout the course which in addition to many being greenside, have strategically placed bunkers in the landing areas off the tee. The longer hitters should have an advantage of taking it over the trouble, although there's certainly an emphasis on accurate driving to set up angles and being able to go flag hunting on approaches with there being several dogleg holes. Overall, I want players that are either very long or very accurate with driver and those that are good from inside 150 yards on approach.
Flushers Only
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds.
- Collin Morikawa: 1.83
- Rory McIlroy: 1.78
- Sepp Straka: 1.63
- Corey Conners: 1.48
- Patrick Cantlay: 1.41
In these events where it's difficult to pinpoint a certain metric to hone in on, it certainly doesn't hurt to look towards the best ball strikers, and Morikawa's form in that regard has been excellent all year. He's third in SG: Approach and only Aaron Rai is hitting fairways at a higher clip. That should be a strong combo here, so it's no surprise that he's the second choice behind McIlroy at 14-1. Another player that's been in good form with his long game is Straka, who ranks well in key categories this season such at SG: Approach (second), SG: Tee-to-green (fifth) and driving accuracy (13th). His performance in strictly signature events this year has been solid with three top-15s in four events. Straka provides good value for bettors at 40-1.
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Truist Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Patrick Cantlay (20-1)
We saw Justin Thomas break his multi-year winless drought in the last signature event which brings the question of – is Cantlay next? He last won in 2022 but is playing well enough to win again soon. Cantlay ranks 13th in SG: Tee-to-green and has two top-5s this year.
Corey Conners (30-1)
We can see from the stats above that Conners has been in good form with his ball striking, which has always been his trademark. The noticeable improvement is that he's gaining shots around the green and putting this year which has helped lead to top-10s in four of his last six tournaments.
Brian Harman (65-1)
Harman had been trending downward for about a year but then won the Valero Texas Open a month ago and most recently finished T3 at the signature event at Harbour Town. These are generous odds for someone playing well with distance not being a necessity here.
Truist Championship Bets: Placement Wagers
Lucas Glover
Top-10 Finish: 11-2
Glover has had his share of ups-and-downs since winning twice in 2023, but he's had some spike weeks this year with T3 finishes at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass as well as a T8 at the Valspar. All of those are short venues like this week.
Keegan Bradley
Top-5 Finish: 13-2
Bradley's results this year have largely been tied to his play on the greens, as his four best putting weeks have all led to top-20s. He was third in SG: Tee-to-Green in his most recent start at Harbour Town, so he's in much better form than these odds would suggest.
Ben Griffin
Top-5 Finish: 11-1
At these venues we don't have any statistics on, it surely doesn't hurt to fall back on a player that does everything well. I expect him to post better results in these bigger events following a confidence boost after winning on Tour for the first time two weeks ago.
Truist Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Aaron Rai (-115) over Andrew Novak
Novak has been hot and is sixth (!) in the FedExCup Standings, but he's not a great target in matchups due to his boom-or-bust nature in which he's finished outside the top-30 in over half of his starts. I'll go with the more reliable Rai, who we know is going to hit a ton of fairways and greens.
Keith Mitchell (-110) over Byeong Hun An
Mitchell may be in via a sponsor's exemption but that overlooks that he's been playing well. He recently finished one back in an alternate event and has four consecutive top-20 finishes. That's the kind of consistency I like in these wagers, and An is coming off a bad ball-striking week at TPC Craig Ranch. Mitchell has been the better golfer of the two this year.
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