This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
U.S. Open Betting Preview
The third major championship of the year is upon us at the best golfers from around the world head to the prestigious Oakmont Country Club just outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for the 125th U.S. Open. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+275) headlines the field and is one of two players with single-digit odds alongside Bryson DeChambeau (15-2). The 156-player field consists of 14 LIV professionals and 15 amateurs with the top-60 and ties making the weekend. Last year, DeChambeau (10-1 odds) bested Rory McIlroy by one shot at Pinehurst No. 2 for his second major championship.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:30 PM ET Tuesday.
Course Overview
Par 70, 7,372 yards
These are the average rankings of U.S. Open champions over the last five years:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 3.0
- SG: Approach: 16.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 8.2
- SG: Putting: 19.2
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.4
- Driving Distance: 5.6
- Driving Accuracy: 28.2
Oakmont last hosted the U.S. Open in 2016, which was won by Dustin Johnson at four-under. Only four players finished under-par and the cut was six-over, so there's going to be plenty of carnage this week. Unlike most Tour venues, holes aren't protected by tree-lined fairways, nor are fairways or the greens guarded by water hazards. What we do have though are tight landing areas that average less than 30 yards wide and thick five-inch rough. On top of that, we also have hazards such as the famous church-pew bunkers that surround the third and fourth fairways and there are over 150 bunkers total throughout the course. While on the surface all that seems to put a premium on hitting fairways, the difficulty of how hard it will be for even the most accurate golfers to hit fairways is going to favor the longer hitters. There are only two par-5s on the course and both play over 600 yards and will likely be three-shot holes for the entire field. There has also been a lot of talk about the long par-3 eighth hole that plays approximately 290 yards, but whether you view it as a ridiculous par-3 or a short and driveable par-4, par on the hole is somewhat irrelevant and players are going to be really happy with a three there. Overall, I'm targeting longer hitters, good putters and players that rank well in bogey avoidance.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at U.S. Open setups since 2020:
- Rory McIlroy: 69.7
- Scottie Scheffler: 69.9
- Xander Schauffele: 70.3
- Jon Rahm: 70.4
- Collin Morikawa: 70.4
McIlroy has been the most consistent player in U.S. Open's over recent years, posting six straight top-10 finishes including back-to-back runner-up performances. Oakmont was not a place that was kind to him in 2016, where he shot eight-over to miss the cut by two strokes. The main question with McIlroy is his current form, as he's coming off his two worst showings of the year in which he shot 78 on Friday in Canada last week as he struggles through a driver change. Meanwhile, Schauffele has also been very good at U.S. Open's, and although it's one of the two majors he hasn't won, he's never finished worse than T14 across eight appearances. He's now a full three months into his return from injury and has finished T28 or better in six straight starts. Schauffele is someone I have my eyes on at 22-1.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler: 3.22
- Keegan Bradley: 1.61
- Daniel Berger: 1.57
- Shane Lowry: 1.41
- Tommy Fleetwood: 1.37
The lone player to appear on both of these lists is Scheffler, who has amazingly gained double the amount of strokes from tee to green over second place across the last 20 rounds. His U.S. Open record is the only question mark, as he only finished T41 at the event last year and has yet to win the event. But with three wins in his last four tournaments, it's hard to think he won't be in contention over the weekend. Much farther down the leaderboard we find a longshot to keep an eye on in Berger at 100-1, who bettors may be cooling on after back-to-back missed cuts. However, he's had his two worst putting performances in those starts and this is the only major that he's posted multiple top-10s at. Berger ranks in the top-25 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and approach this year, which is a good combination to have at difficult setups.
U.S. Open Bets: Outright Picks
Joaquin Niemann (30-1)
Niemann is coming off a win at LIV Virginia in which he closed with a Sunday 63 to win by one for his fourth victory of the year. The knock on him has always been that he's underperformed in the majors, however, he appeared to be turning a corner in that regard with his first top-10 in a major at Quail Hollow last month.
Justin Thomas (45-1)
I know Thomas has come back down in his last two events but let's not forget he won a signature event in April and followed up it with a T2 at the Truist. He ranks well in a variety of categories this season: fourth in SG: Total, eighth in approach and second in par-4 scoring.
Ben Griffin (70-1)
It's not easy to find a player in better form right now than Griffin. The third-year Tour pro nearly nearly went back-to-back after winning at Colonial but faltered late to finish runner-up to Scheffler at the Memorial. Griffin posted a top-10 at the PGA Championship last month.
U.S. Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Si Woo Kim (5-1)
Kim is playing some of the best and most consistent golf of his career with eight top-25s since February (13 starts). He's also coming off his first top-10 in a major. Not the longest hitter but does everything else really well.
Wyndham Clark (17-2)
Clark is someone that bettors will likely overlook as his form hasn't been great recently, but that's more than factored into these odds, and he is a former U.S. Open champion after all. Distance will be important this week and Clark has plenty of it.
Jordan Smith (11-1)
Smith isn't a household name stateside being a seasoned DP World Tour pro, where he's been in good form with three top-10s over his last four events. He has one top-10 in a major and is a capable ball striker that could surprise this week.
U.S. Open Bets: To Miss The Cut
Corey Conners (+175)
The U.S. Open has been by far Conners' worst major, where he's only made 1-of-6 cuts. He's lost some distance this year and his approach numbers are down as well. Conners has five top-10s this year but none of them have come over his last five events. I'm comfortable fading him here.
Hideki Matsuyama (+135)
Matsuyama has historically been a reliable golfer to target in majors, but he missed the cut at Quail Hollow last month as his game has continued to trend downwards. That's his third missed cut over his last six starts as he's still in search of his first top-10 since winning The Sentry to begin the year.
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