UFC Nashville DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Nashville: Lewis vs. Teixeira. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (28-12-0, 1NC) v. Tallison Teixeira (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Lewis ($7,200), Teixeira ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Lewis (+210), Teixeira (-260)
Lewis continues to get the main event spotlight despite the fact he is 2-3 in his past five fights dating back to February 2022. He hasn't been in the actual title picture for about a half decade, and he's more of an attraction than anything else at this stage of his career. His two most recent victories, although both via knockout, have come against Rodrigo Nascimento and Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Yet, Lewis remains extremely popular, and this fight is taking place in front of a full area in Nashville, so here we are. For what it's worth, this is the exact way Lewis should be marketed. Having him fight in an empty UFC Apex is a waste of everyone's time.
Teixeira at 25 years of age and with all of one official UFC bout under his belt, is an even more unlikely headliner than the 40-year-old Lewis. Tallison is undefeated as a professional, with all eight of his wins coming via stoppage (seven knockouts, one submission). He knocked out Arthur Lopes on Dana White's Contender Series in 1:57 last September, and he knocked out Justin Tafa in 35 seconds in his first fight with the company in February. Regular readers of this column know I don't think much of Tafa, so I'm not sure the fact Teixiera dispatched him so quickly tells us much of anything.
I'm very concerned about the durability, or lack thereof, of Lewis. Seven of his dozen career losses have come via knockout. Three of his last four defeats are via stoppage (two knockouts, one submission), and I don't expect that trend to stop in the latter stages of his career. He dispatched Rogerio de Lima in 33 seconds, so he barely got hit in that fight, and Nascimento has just two career wins via knockout, so he didn't have to worry about any real firepower coming back his way. Say what you will about Teixeira, but the power is legitimate.
Teixiera is going to have a four-inch edge in both height and reach. He's a better athlete than Lewis and much lighter on his feet.
If Derrick has one legitimate edge, it's in terms of experience. This is a guy that's been in the Octagon with the likes of Francis Ngannou, Daniel Cormier, Alexander Volkov, Ciryl Gane, Curtis Blaydes, etc. You get the idea.
This fight is going to be an absolute car crash, and I doubt it lasts very long.
Teixeira deserves to be favored for all the reasons I outlined above. I could very easily see him going in there and dispatching Lewis in seconds. All that said, the line is too wide, and Lewis is being undervalued.
Teixeira is going to engage Lewis in the only type of fight he can win these days. His durability may be so poor at this stage of his career that it won't matter, but they always says power is the last thing to go, and the value on the Lewis side feels fair for an upset pick.
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Lewis
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Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) v. Gabriel Bonfim (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Thompson ($6,900), Bonfim ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Thompson (+310), Bonfim (-400)
Now 42 years old, Thompson has lost two straight and four of five dating back to July 2021. The four defeats came against Joaquin Buckley, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, and there's no shame in that, but the company needs to be more careful regarding the level of competition it matches Wonderboy up against and it needs to do so quickly. For what it's worth, Thompson was beating Buckley pretty handily in his his most recent fight last October before getting nuked with one big shot midway through Round 3.
4-1 in the UFC with three submission wins and a knockout loss on his ledger, Bonfim feels like a fair step up in competition for Thompson given the point each are at in their respective careers. Gabriel's most notable victories with the company are over Ange Loosa and Khaos Williams, so the gap in quality of opponent each has faced is extremely overwhelming.
Wonderboy hasn't really slowed down at his advanced age, at least in terms of the things he's always been good at. Sure, he's not quite as sharp as he was in his heyday, but he remains one of the best point kickboxers the sport has ever seen, and he's still going to have a fair amount of success in those type of fights.
It's up to Bonfim to either close the distance between the two on the fight, or more likely, lean on his wrestling game for success.
Gabriel is averaging 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Thompson defends the takedown at just 63 percent. Wonderboy is an excellent athlete, especially when you take into account how rangy and light he is on the feet, but he's not 30, or even 35 anymore. Any slippage in athleticism, especially in a fight like this one, could be his undoing.
Bonfim's lone UFC loss came against Nicolas Dalby, and he badly gassed in that fight. His following two bouts were against Loosa and Williams, and I'm not entirely convinced the issue is rectified because he didn't break a sweat in either. One thing we know about Wonderboy is he's supremely conditioned, and he's not going to beat himself.
This is another fight in which the favorite appears to be overvalued, but unlike the main event, I can't get to picking Thompson outright. I'm too concerned Bonfim will make this look easy by leaning on his grappling. If he's foolish enough to engage Wonderboy in a kickboxing match, he deserves what's coming to him.
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Bonfim
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Featherweight
Calvin Kattar (23-9-0) v. Steve Garcia (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Kattar ($7,800), Garcia ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Kattar (+115), Garcia (-135)
Kattar is a notable name, but the UFC is most certainly doing him a favor in giving him another high-profile fight. He's lost four straight and is without a victory dating back to January 2022. If there's one bit of good news, it's that he went the distance in three of the four setbacks (the other was an injury stoppage), but that's about the only positive thing to say about this recent run. The chances of Kattar getting released are quite high if he comes up short here.
Given how great Garcia has been of late, it feels as if the UFC brass may be throwing Kattar to the wolves one final time. Steve has won five in a row, all via knockout, with three coming in Round 1. The best win of the bunch was against Chase Hooper, although that was also the first in the streak back in October 2022, and Hooper is lightyears better now than he was then. Kattar, even at what is a clearly diminished capacity, is at least on part with the level of competition Garcia has been rolling through of late.
Kattar is tough and physical, but he has some of the ugliest advanced metrics of any fighter on the roster. He's a one-dimensional brawler that lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.62 per minute. For comparison sake, Garcia is a brawler himself (albeit one that tends to have much shorter fights due to his knockout prowess), and he absorbs 2.34 significant strikes per 15 minutes, or roughly a third of the damage Kattar takes.
I'd feel much better about a potential bounceback from Calvin if he had any grappling chops whatsoever. His takedown defense is fine (77 percent), but he brings zero offense grappling to the table.
I can't help but think Kattar is going to have to change the way he operates in order to win this fight.
Garcia has been knocking everyone out of late. Calvin has zero durability issues, getting finished via strikes just once in 32 pro fights, but I don't see how he can take the level of punishment he is accustomed to from Steve and expect to survive.
Even if Kattar does hang around and land enough volume to make it competitive, Garcia is almost going to land the more noticeable blows. With a super hot live crowd, that alone could be enough to sway the judges.
I don't see Calvin changing the way he operates at this late stage of his career. I think Garcia is a value play. I think he either finds the finish or puts a beating on the notoriously-tough Kattar for 15 minutes.
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Garcia
Welterweight
Max Griffin (20-11-0) v. Chris Curtis (31-12-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Griffin ($7,100), Curtis ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Griffin (+250), Curtis (-320)
Curtis has been trending in the wrong direction for more than two years now, and his stock within the division has really suffered as a result. He's 1-3 (1NC) in his past five fights, with the one victory being a split decision over Marc-Andre Barriault. He's fought names like Brendan Allen (twice), Roman Kopylov, Nassourdine Imavov, Kelvin Gastelum, Joaquin Buckle, and Jack Hermansson during his UFC run, so with no disrespect to Griffin, this is a fight Curtis has to win.
Griffin will be 40 years of age in late November. He's been the definition of roster depth for more than four years now, alternating wins and losses in his past six fights. The fact Griffin is still with the company is nothing short of miraculous considering he lost four of five from July 2018 to March 2020. He has value to a company which holds an event most every Saturday, but the upside here is extremely limited.
Griffin's biggest problem is that he struggles to generate offense. Anywhere.
He can wrestle in a pinch, but most of his big takedown performances came earlier in his career. These days he's primarily a low-volume striker that doesn't throw much and doesn't get hit much in return. It's the reason he's in so many subjective fights on the scorecards.
Curtis is getting hit more than ever in the latter stages of his career, and that's a major concern, but at least he's still throwing a ton. He's landed 100-plus significant strikes in his last three fights and two of those three bouts -- Barriault and Kopylov -- were three rounds.
I'm no fan of Curtis these days, and I certainly don't like backing him as a heavy favorite, but outside of a flash knockout, I don't see how Griffin wins this fight.
Chris has always had exceptional takedown defense. It's wobbled a bit of late, as he gave up six takedowns to Allen and three to Imavov, but I highly doubt Griffin is going to be spamming attempts. I certainly don't see him racking up enough control time from top position to sway the judges.
On the feet, Max simply doesn't throw enough to win a decision. In his last three fights which went the distance, Griffin's significant strike totals are 26, 36 and 42. Curtis doubles that up in his sleep.
It seems like the perfect spot for "The Action Man" to get back on track.
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Curtis
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Nate Landwehr (18-6-0) v. Morgan Charriere (20-11-1)
DK Salaries: Landwehr ($7,300), Charriere ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Landwehr (+200), Charriere (-240)
THE PICK: Charriere
Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (11-2-0) v. Austen Lane (13-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Petrino ($9,600), Lane ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Petrino (-650), Lane (+460)
THE PICK: Petrino
Light Heavyweight
Junior Tafa (6-3-0) v. Tuco Tokkos (10-5-0)
DK Salaries: Tafa ($8,600), Tokkos ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Tafa (-180), Tokkos (+150)
THE PICK: Tafa
Welterweight
Jake Matthews (21-7-0) v. Chidi Njokuani (25-10-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Matthews ($8,000), Njokuani ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Matthews (-105), Njokuani (-115)
THE PICK: Njokuani
Women's Flyweight
Lauren Murphy (16-6-0) v. Eduarda Moura (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Murphy ($6,700), Moura ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Murphy (+430), Moura (-600)
THE PICK: Moura
Heavyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-5-0) v. Valter Walker (13-1-0)
DK Salaries: Nzechukwu ($8,800), Walker ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Nzechukwu (-240), Walker (+200)
THE PICK: Walker
Lightweight
Mitch Ramirez (8-2-0) v. Mike Davis (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Ramirez ($6,400), Davis ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Ramirez (+600), Davis (-900)
THE PICK: Davis
Women's Strawweight
Fatima Kline (7-1-0) v. Melissa Martinez (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Kline ($9,900), Martinez ($6,300)
Vegas Odds: Kline (-1200), Martinez (+750)
THE PICK: Kline
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
