Top Picks and Predictions for Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
The UFC brings us another card stuffed to the gills, as Noche features 14 fights we can use to potentially turn a profit. We'll break down each bout across three platforms, including a nerd out for revenge, and a grappler who will look to stop a hype train before it gets on the tracks. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Quang Le ($7,900)
Le may have the perfect style for newcomer Santiago Luna, who will look to crash forward with big shots to get the clinch. Le is excellent at managing distance and is strong in 50/50 positions, which should allow him to land hard counter shots and work his own wrestling.
Tatiana Suarez ($9,200)
Suarez was dominated by Zhang Weili in her return to the Octagon earlier this year, but the 34-year-old showed off her strength and skill in a promising first round before succumbing to fatigue. She has a much more forgiving matchup ahead of her, as Amanda Lemos has been held on the ground and submitted by strong grapplers in the past. There is room for a bit of caution, as we don't know how Suarez will look following her first MMA loss, but her skill set should be enough to win the day.
Joaquim Silva ($8,000)
I am somewhat surprised that Silva is the underdog here, as Claudio Puelles hasn't shown much in the Octagon against opponents he can't outgrapple. "Neto BJJ" is physically strong for the weight class, hits hard, and won't be afraid to go to the ground with his Peruvian opponent. Given that Puelles' last win came against an aging Clay Guida in 2022, I have my doubts that he will be able to pass a test against a game opponent.
Montserrat Rendon ($7,600)
Alice Pereira looks to be an imposing force who hits hard and has good jiujitsu, but there is simply no way to trust a 19-year-old with six low-level fights under her belt to beat a UFC veteran. "Monster" never wavers in her quest to bring the fight to the floor, and should be prepared for the blitzing attacks of "Golden Girl." It is also worth noting that Montserrat has never been finished in her seven professional fights.
Alexander Hernandez ($8,400)
Hernandez's speed should be too much for the 40-year-old Carlos Diego Ferreira, who often has to weather an early storm before taking a fight over. While he has had issues with Cardio in the past, "The Great" took virtually no damage in his first-round knockout of Chase Hooper last month and should be able to start fast here.
Rodrigo Sezinando ($7,400)
It's tough for big-swinging BJJ players to find success at the highest levels of MMA in 2025, but I just don't trust what I've seen from Daniil Donchenko, who often finds himself off balance and throwing naked leg kicks in the pocket. The Brazilian should be able to throw enough out there to get to the hips of the Ukranian fighter and work his jiujitsu in this one.
Kelvin Gastelum ($9,000)
Playing the hammer is a risky way to fight Gastelum, who has never been knocked out in 29 professional fights. Dustin Stoltzfus will throw big shots and empty his gas tank early, which will open him up to reactive takedown attempts and allow the former title contender to take the fight over after an initial burst.
Jared Gordon ($9,100)
There's a chance this fight is more competitive than this price suggests, as Rafa Garcia is an athletic grappler who hits hard. Still, Gordon has fared much better against fellow wrestlers and has made strides in his boxing game over the past few years. As long as he can enter exchanges on his terms, "Flash" should be able to win this fight anywhere it goes.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Rob Font Over 64.5 Significant Strikes, Alessandro Costa UNDER 44.5 Significant Strikes, and Luis Gurule OVER 34.5 Significant Strikes
Font's defense seems to have improved in recent fights, as it has been quite a while since we have seen him rocked or hurt. This will be key against David Martinez, who throws everything he has into his strikes. Font will need to be careful of leg kicks, but he should be able to use his footwork and eclipse this total by a wide margin.
The matchup between Costa and Alden Coria is an under player's dream, as Costa throws big, single strikes, while Coria looks to grapple whenever possible. This should result in very few strikes thrown in space.
Gurule should have a much easier time controlling space against Jesus Aguilar, who is not as fast or as long as Ode Osbourne, and will generally look to counterpunch. I expect this fight to move slowly, but have enough momentum for Gurule to clear his total.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Dusko Todorovic Wins via KO/TKO (+330)
Both Todorovic and Jose Medina throw to finish fights, but Dusko will have a marked speed advantage here, and Medina seems too preoccupied with mugging after getting hit to mount sustained offense. I expect "Thunder" to back Medina up early and put combinations together until the fight ends.
Jean Silva Wins via KO/TKO (+100)
My hot take going into his fight with Brian Ortega was that Diego Lopes is not a championship-level fighter. I believe I came out justified, as the 30-year-old looked a step behind in the striking early and never worked his way into the fight. I believe a similar dynamic will occur against Jean Silva, as the far more fluid and creative striker will have a field day at range. Lopes needs the threat of his world-class BJJ to have an edge, and we have already seen Silva submit a talented grappler in Bryce Mitchell.
Zachary Reese Wins via KO/TKO (+165)
Sedriques Dumas had a terrible performance in his last outing against Michal Oleksiejczuk, overreacting to every faint and almost running away from strikes. This behavior will not play well against Reese, who is big for the division and swings hard. Reese's pressure and pace should be enough to trap Dumas until he can land the finishing strike.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for Noche UFC this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
