Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Abu Dhabi: Whittaker vs De Ridder
The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a 12-fight slate, which features some intriguing matchups. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a light heavyweight who showed some promise in a short-notice debut, and a powerhouse looking to pick up a victory against a war-tested veteran. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Marcus Almeida ($9,100)
Almeida fights in a manner you might expect from a BJJ champion with six professional MMA bouts, swinging as hard as he can to close the distance and bring the fight to the floor. Martin Buday likes to pour on the pressure and is a good heavyweight boxer, but "Buchecha" will throw offense from the opening bell and has shown he will continue to fight while fatigued. Buday may be able to find counter shots in Almeida's chaotic offense, but it is more likely that the 35-year-old overwhelms him early.
Da'Mon Blackshear ($9,000)
Blackshear showed a whole new facet of his game against Heili Alateng, mixing crisp boxing combinations with his grappling. This should serve him well against Davey Grant, who will be on the wrong end of the equation when it comes to height, reach, and athleticism. "Dangerous" is incredibly aggressive, but against someone like Blackshear, this likely means he will be walking into offense.
Said Nurmagomedov ($7,900)
It's difficult to know where Bryce Mitchell is in his career, as the once prolific takedown artist has only secured three in his last three fights, most recently going 1-for-14 on attempts before being choked out by Jean Silva. Nurmagomedov is physically strong and far more aggressive in striking range. This should lead to another frustrating Mitchell performance in which he is unable to get his game going.
Billy Elekana ($7,100)
I have never been a fan of Ibo Aslan's offense, as he tends to just wing power shots with no plan for when his opponent can weather the storm. Elekena put forth a strong effort on short notice against another imposing force in Bogdan Guskov, showing some nice grappling before gassing out in Round 2. I am interested to see what Elekana can do on a full camp, as he should have the athleticism to keep range and stay out of danger.
Amanda Ribas ($8,600)
Ribas has had her ups and downs in the UFC, but she has a nice all-around game, which gives her strong upside in victory. The Brazilian will come into this fight with an 83 percent takedown defense rate and a five-inch reach advantage over Tabatha Ricci, who will likely get stuck at range, allowing her opponent to take this fight wherever she wants.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks -Significant Strikes
Steven Nguyen OVER 57.5 Significant Strikes, Marc-Andre Barriault OVER 48.5 Significant Strikes, Petr Yan OVER 76.5 Significant Strikes, and Muslim Salikhov OVER 35.5 Significant Strikes
Nguyen should be able to score early and often against Mohammad Yahya, a grappler who stands with his chin in the air. "The Ninja" was a dedicated finisher on the regional scene, but he seems to prioritize keeping range and exiting the pocket after landing strikes. This, combined with Yahya's hesitancy to engage, should make for a fight that goes long enough to clear this total.
Barriault's last three fights all ended in the first round, but the three before that saw him land a combined total of 326 significant strikes. While this may make totals for "Powerbar" seem like a coin flip, the matchup against Shara Magomedov may be an over to target, as "Bullet" will cede ground to his opponents and is difficult to hurt. This should lead to multiple early exchanges, which would get us over the line regardless of whether the fight ends in a finish.
Yan has always had a crowd-pleasing style, as evidenced by the 5.11 significant strikes he has averaged per minute in his UFC career. When we consider that Marcus McGhee has averaged over six significant strikes per minute, this total looks relatively low. The former champion could wrestle to mix things up, but McGhee has yet to give up a takedown in four UFC fights.
Carlos Leal is a bulldozer in the octagon, but I expect Salikhov to make this more competitive than the line suggests, as he has kept his agility and athleticism with age. While the fight still may end with "The King of Kung Fu" looking up at the lights, he should be able to stay on his bike long enough to get over the line.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Robert Whittaker Wins via KO/TKO (+148)
Reinier de Ridder has been excitement personified early in his UFC career, stopping all three of his opponents. It must be noted, however, that each of those fighters possessed weaknesses that are not present in the game of Whittaker. "RDR" is big for the division and likely can submit any opponent under the right circumstances, but "The Reaper" will have tremendous speed and striking advantages. He also has never been easy to take down (81 percent defense rate), which may make this look like an easy call in retrospect.
Bogdan Guskov Wins via KO/TKO (+270)
This isn't a fight I would have picked Guskov to win a few years ago, but Nikita Krylov looked so out of sorts in his fight against Dominick Reyes that it's difficult for me to trust him against a powerful finisher. It may be the case that "The Miner" needed to shake off the rust after two years away, but with 40 professional fights under his belt, it is worth wondering if he can still keep up with the dynamic athletes in this division.
Jose Ochoa Wins via KO/TKO (+320)
The warning signs for Asu Almabayev were there before his loss to Manel Kape, as he was unable to close distance effectively against Matheus Nicolau, resulting in wild overhand rights and sloppy takedown attempts. Ochoa is a tireless scambler when his back hits the mat, and the low position of his hands at range should help him stay upright. While Almabayev can be a handful when he gets going, it's apparent that he doesn't have a plan B, which will continue to hurt him at this level.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Abu Dhabi this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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