UFC Perth: MMA Betting Picks and Odds Insight
The UFC is at the RAC Arena in Australia on Saturday, September 27, for a return from a one-week break with UFC Perth. The main event sees light heavyweight contenders throw down, as Carlos Ulberg takes on former title challenger Dominick Reyes.
Below, I'll share my UFC Perth predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Jimmy Crute (13-4-2) vs. Ivan Erslan (14-5)
Jimmy Crute finally returned to the win column earlier this year, and he was called to fight in Perth just a few months later. This opponent -- and ensuing odds -- are admittedly a bit of a surprise.
Ivan Erslan is 0-2 in the UFC and isn't near the same level as Crute. Fortunately for bettors, Crute is under a (-200) favorite, which makes him a must-play here.
Crute will be the much better grappler, and he should be able to wrestle Erslan and control him on the ground. Erslan has struggled to defend takedowns, getting taken down three times in each of his two UFC losses to date.
Crute finally used his wrestling in his last fight against Marcin Prachnio, and he looked good doing so. If he fights safely again here, he should win, or perhaps find his second consecutive submission. Erslan is also there to be hit (5.17 significant strikes absorbed per minute), giving Crute another path to victory.
UFC Perth Bet: Jimmy Crute (-185)
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Weight Class: Bantamweight
Colby Thicknesse (7-1) vs. Josias Musasa (8-1)
For my underdog pick at UFC Perth, I'm taking Colby Thicknesse to defeat Josias Musasa on Saturday.
Thicknesse is a teammate of Alexander Volkanovski and lost his debut to Aleksandre Topuria in a good fight. Musasa, meanwhile, was a massive -800 favorite in his debut and was submitted by Carlos Vera. He also didn't look good on his feet prior to the stoppage.
I like Thicknesse to be able to keep it standing and use his jab and movement to be the higher-volume striker. Musasa is there to be hit, while Thicknesse will also have the crowd's support. This should be a very close decision, so I'll take the underdog here.
UFC Perth Bet: Colby Thicknesse (+130)
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Weight Class: Welterweight
Jake Matthews (22-7) vs. Neil Magny (30-13)
For my prop at UFC Perth, I'm taking the welterweight fight between Jake Matthews and Neil Magny to go over 2.5 rounds.
Matthews and Magny are both savvy veterans who are known to extend fights with their grappling and clinch work.
Both fighters are rather durable, and aren't known finishers, either. Matthews has gone the distance in three of his last four fights, while Magny has gone over 2.5 rounds in three of his last six fights. Note that two of those "unders" came against Carlos Prates and Michael Morales, who are far better finishers than Matthews.
I expect this one to go the distance and for Matthews to get the win, but the over is the best bet in this fight.
UFC Perth Bet: Jake Matthews-Neil Magny over 2.5 rounds (-140)
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Weight Class: Featherweight & Light Heavyweight
Jack Jenkins (13-4) vs. Ramon Taveras (10-3)
Carlos Ulberg (12-1) vs. Dominick Reyes (15-4)
For my parlay at UFC Perth, I'm backing Jack Jenkins and Carlos Ulberg to get their hands raised.
Jenkins is taking on Ramon Taveras, who's moving up to featherweight. Jenkins is a better striker than Taveras, especially defensively, as Tavares has been there to be hit in his UFC career. In fact, Taveras absorbs 7.41 a whopping significant strikes per minute, while Jenkins only absorbs 2.97. Jenkins should be able to land the more damaging shots to win a decision here even if he doesn't find the finish.
To close out the parlay, I like Ulberg to beat Reyes in the main event. Ulberg is the more technical striker, and although Reyes has looked good of late, the level of competition hasn't been there, and I still have concerns about his chin. I like Ulberg to pick his shots and earn a TKO win in the third or fourth round here, as he will be the faster striker.
UFC Perth Bet: Jack Jenkins & Carlos Ulberg parlay (-111)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Perth card.
- Jimmy Crute (-185)
- Colby Thicknesse (+130)
- Jake Matthews-Neil Magny over 2.5 rounds (-140)
- Jack Jenkins & Carlos Ulberg parlay (-111)
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