Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Mexico
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Mexico card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC Houston Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 39-13-0
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Edgar Chairez
Fanduel Captain: Chairez/Moreno
Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) v. Lone'er Kavanagh (9-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-9-2 (5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- Elite pace, cardio, and scrambles with championship-level experience
- Extremely well-rounded with the ability to mix striking and grappling seamlessly
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-1 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with speed and confidence on the feet
- Taking a massive step up in competition against a high-pressure veteran
DFS Perspective: Moreno's experience, pace, and well-rounded skill set make him the clear DFS target. His ability to push volume, scramble, and mix in grappling creates multiple scoring paths over three rounds. Kavanagh's speed and upside keep him live, but this is a major step up in competition and a difficult stylistic matchup against Moreno's relentless tempo. Moreno profiles as a high-floor, high-ceiling DFS play with strong volume and submission equity.
UFC Mexico Pick: Moreno
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Marlon Vera (23-11-1) v. David Martinez (13-1-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 23-11-1 (8 KO/TKO, 10 submissions)
- Durable, dangerous finisher with strong late-fight moments
- Notoriously slow starter who often gives away early rounds
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-1 (10 KO/TKO)
- Fast, aggressive prospect with strong output and confidence early
- Builds momentum quickly and capitalizes on opponents who start slow
DFS Perspective: Vera's slow starts are a major concern in this matchup, especially against a fast starter like Martinez. While Vera always carries finish-or-bust upside due to his durability and late-fight danger, the pacing dynamics favor Martinez heavily over three rounds. Martinez's activity, pressure, and ability to bank early rounds should give him a clear DFS edge. He profiles as the preferred DFS play with solid volume scoring and a strong path to moving to 3-0 in the UFC.
UFC Mexico Pick: Martinez
Daniel Zellhuber (15-3-0) v. King Green (33-17-1)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 15-3 (7 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Long, technical striker with strong range control and improving composure
- Continues to develop and looks more comfortable dictating pace each fight
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 33-17-1 (11 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Slick, experienced boxer with strong defensive instincts and fight IQ
- Inconsistency and age raise concerns about which version shows up
DFS Perspective: This fight could be closer than it looks on paper depending on which version of Green shows up, but stylistically it still feels like Zellhuber's fight to lose. His length, activity, and ability to manage distance should allow him to control the striking exchanges over three rounds. Green's experience and defensive awareness keep him competitive, but Zellhuber's pace and physical advantages give him the clearer DFS path. He projects as the preferred DFS play with solid volume and decision equity, with some upside if he hurts Green late.
UFC Mexico Pick: Zellhuber
Edgar Chairez (12-6-0) v. Felipe Bunes (14-8-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-6 (4 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Aggressive finisher with strong grappling instincts and scrambles
- Dangerous when he can dictate pace and force chaotic exchanges
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-8 (3 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Tough and willing to engage, but defensively hittable
- Can struggle against higher-pressure, more dynamic opponents
DFS Perspective: On paper, this is one of the more favorable matchups for Chairez. His aggression, grappling upside, and ability to overwhelm opponents in scrambles give him a clear edge across multiple phases. If he pushes the pace early, he has a strong path to dominant scoring through control, advances, and potential submission threats. Chairez profiles as a high-ceiling DFS play and a potential smash spot if he imposes his game from the start.
UFC Mexico Pick: Chairez
Imanol Rodriguez (6-0-0) v. Kevin Borjas (10-4-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Debuting prospect with explosive power and aggressive striking
- Carries real knockout threat and pushes a fast pace early
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-4 (8 KO/TKO)
- Technical but low-output striker who can struggle to pull the trigger
- Recent performances have shown limited volume and difficulty establishing offense
DFS Perspective: Rodriguez is a very intriguing DFS target in his debut due to his aggression and clear knockout upside. The firepower in his hands contrasts sharply with Borjas' recent low-output performances, including struggles to generate meaningful significant strike volume. If Borjas once again fights tentatively, Rodriguez's pressure and power could overwhelm him early. Rodriguez profiles as a high-upside tournament play with strong knockout equity, especially if he forces exchanges from the opening round.
UFC Mexico Pick: Rodriguez
Santiago Luna (7-0-0) v. Angel Pacheco (7-3-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-0 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid pressure and finishing ability
- Comfortable dictating pace and capitalizing on openings
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-3 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Aggressive and dangerous in exchanges with real finishing instincts
- Can be hittable when fights turn into extended firefights
DFS Perspective: This matchup certainly favors Luna, but both fighters will have opportunities as long as the fight stays competitive. Luna's more complete skill set and ability to manage pace give him the clearer path to winning rounds and controlling the flow of the fight. However, the volatility is real, as Pacheco is dangerous and willing to engage in exchanges where momentum can swing quickly. Luna is the preferred DFS side, but this is a fight with mutual finish equity and solid tournament appeal.
UFC Mexico Pick: Luna
Jose Medina (11-6-0) v. Ryan Gandra (8-1-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-6 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Tough, experienced fighter willing to engage in exchanges
- Has lost all three of his UFC fights and has struggled to separate at this level
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-1 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- Debuting prospect with solid physical tools and finishing upside
- Enters with momentum and a clear opportunity against a struggling opponent
DFS Perspective: This sets up as a very favorable spot for Gandra in his UFC debut. Medina likely enters with pressure given his 0-3 UFC record, and his past performances suggest difficulty handling opponents with momentum and physical upside. While debut fighters always carry some risk, Gandra's trajectory and matchup against a fighter on a losing skid make him the preferred DFS side. He profiles as a strong win-equity play with potential finishing upside if he pushes the pace early.
UFC Mexico Pick: Gandra
Macy Chiasson (10-5-0) v. Ailin Perez (12-2-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-5 (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Long, physical striker who is most effective at range
- Can struggle when forced into grappling-heavy fights and prolonged control sequences
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 12-2 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Relentless grappler with strong top control and positional pressure
- Excels at chaining takedowns and wearing opponents down over rounds
DFS Perspective: Chiasson will need to land early and consistently on the feet to overcome Perez's grappling, but stylistically, that is a difficult ask. Perez's groundwork, pressure, and ability to secure control time give her a very clear DFS path through takedowns and positional dominance. If she implements her usual wrestling-heavy approach, she can neutralize Chiasson's length and rack up steady scoring. Perez profiles as the preferred DFS play with a strong floor and solid control-based upside.
UFC Mexico Pick: Perez
Cristian Quinonez (18-5-0) v. Kris Moutinho (14-7-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-5 (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Aggressive striker with solid power and finishing instincts
- Comfortable pushing pace and overwhelming opponents with volume
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14-7 (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Extremely durable and willing to walk forward nonstop
- Absorbs massive damage and relies heavily on toughness over defense
DFS Perspective: Quinonez is in a very favorable matchup here. Moutinho's durability keeps him alive in fights, but his defensive issues and tendency to absorb damage play directly into Quinonez's pressure and volume striking. Even if Moutinho survives early, the accumulation of damage and sustained offense from Quinonez should lead to dominant scoring or a late stoppage. Quinonez profiles as a strong DFS play with both volume and finishing upside.
UFC Mexico Pick: Quinonez
Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0) v. Javier Reyes (22-5-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 29-6 (20 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Veteran brawler with real power and finishing experience
- Durable and dangerous in close-range exchanges despite age
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-5 (10 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Younger prospect with physical advantages and developing skill set
- Still relatively untested against experienced, durable veterans
DFS Perspective: This is a classic veteran-versus-prospect matchup with volatility on both sides. Andrade's experience, durability, and knockout power make him dangerous at all times, especially if the fight turns into a brawl. However, Reyes' youth, length, and potential volume edge could allow him to control the pace over three rounds if he stays disciplined. From a DFS standpoint, this fight has sneaky tournament appeal due to Andrade's finish-or-bust profile, while Reyes offers the slightly safer path through activity and range management.
UFC Mexico Pick: Reyes
Erik Silva (9-3-0) v. Francis Marshall (8-3-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-3 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Aggressive fighter with solid finishing instincts and forward pressure
- Can be hittable in extended exchanges and relies on momentum
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-3 (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- High-output, well-rounded fighter with strong pace and composure
- Durable and capable of winning rounds through volume and control
DFS Perspective: This sets up as a strong bounce-back spot for Marshall, especially after a controversial result in his last outing. His pace, durability, and well-rounded skill set give him multiple paths to control the fight over three rounds. Silva will have moments due to his aggression, but that same aggression can play into Marshall's ability to outwork and outland him consistently. Marshall profiles as the preferred DFS play with solid volume, decision equity, and potential late-fight upside.
UFC Mexico Pick: Marshall
Wes Schultz (8-2-0) v. Damian Pinas (8-1-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-2 (2 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Grappling-oriented fighter who looks to control and work from top position
- Needs to close distance and avoid extended striking exchanges
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-1 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Dangerous striker with power and finishing instincts
- Most effective when he can keep fights standing and dictate range
DFS Perspective: This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup with clear paths on both sides. Pinas has the knockout threat and will be dangerous if the fight stays on the feet, but Schultz offers intriguing underdog appeal if he can survive early exchanges and force grappling sequences. There are not many well-liked dogs on this card, and Schultz fits the profile of a live one if he can secure takedowns and rack up control time. He is a risky but viable tournament play, especially if he successfully drags the fight to the mat and slows the pace.
UFC Mexico Pick: Schultz
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
