The UFC is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Saturday, October 11, for a solid UFC Rio card. The main event of the card sees Charles Oliveira taking on Mateusz Gamrot in a pivotal bout at lightweight.
UFC 320: MMA Betting Picks and Odds Insight
Below, I'll share my UFC Rio predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Ricardo Ramos (17-7) vs Kaan Ofli (11-4-1)
Ricardo Ramos gets to fight at home in Brazil and has a very winnable fight with Kaan Ofli in a likely loser-leaves-town matchup.
Ramos has struggled as of late, as he's 1-3 in his last four, but he has been fighting a high level of competition. Ofli, meanwhile, is 0-2 in the UFC and hasn't looked very competitive.
Ramos should be able to take Ofli down and use his grappling to control Ofli. That control time should allow him to edge out a rather clear-cut decision, plus he also is the better striker, should this fight stay on the feet.
UFC Rio Best Bet: Ricardo Ramos (-185)
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Weight Class: Featherweight
Lucas Almeida (15-4) vs Michael Aswell (10-3)
For my underdog pick at UFC Rio, I'm taking Lucas Almeida to beat Michael Aswell on the prelims.
Almeida is 2-3 in the UFC and coming off a very close split decision loss to Danny Silva. Aswell is active on the feet, but he is there to be hit, and Almeida should have the grappling advantage if he chooses to.
Almeida will need to survive the first round, as his chin is a bit questionable. Presuming he does, he should be able to take over by landing the harder shots and mixing in his clinch work to control the fight and win a decision. This will be a very close fight, so I'll take the +124 on Almeida.
UFC Rio Best Bet: Lucas Almeida (+124)
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Weight Class: Welterweight
Joel Alvarez (22-3) vs. Vicente Luque (23-11-1)
For my prop at UFC Rio, I'm taking the under 1.5 rounds in the Joel Alvarez vs. Vicente Luque fight.
Alvarez is getting a big opportunity to face Luque, and this is a good spot for him to likely get an early finish. But, taking the under is the safer spot, as Luque has the possibility to land a KO punch early.
Both fighters are aggressive, so they will go at each other, which will lead to the fight not lasting long. Alvarez is coming off a first-round KO win, while Luque's chin is starting to go.
Expect both guys to throw heavy shots and someone to likely get knocked out here in the opening round.
UFC Rio Best Bet: Joel Alvarez-Vicente Luque under 1.5 rounds (-154)
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Weight Class: Heavyweight & bantamweight
Valter Walker (14-1) vs. Mohammed Usman (11-4)
Montel Jackson (15-2) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1)
For my parlay at UFC Rio, I'm taking Valter Walker and Montel Jackson to get their hands raised.
Walker is on an incredible run of three-straight heel hook wins, which isn't a common submission. Usman, meanwhile, should struggle to keep this fight standing, as Walker should be able to take the American down early. I think Walker gets a submission win early to cash the first leg of the parlay.
To close out the ticket, I'm backing Jackson to defeat Figueiredo. Jackson is someone I've been high on for a while now, and he is on a six-fight winning streak. Jackson is a great striker and possesses a ton of power, which should enable him to land more damaging shots. Even if the American can't finish Figueiredo, he should be the more active striker to win a clear-cut decision.
UFC Rio Bet: Valter Walker & Montel Jackson parlay (-130)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Rio card.
- Ricardo Ramos (-185)
- Lucas Almeida (+124)
- Joel Alvarez-Vicente Luque under 1.5 rounds (-154)
- Valter Walker & Montel Jackson parlay (-130)
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