UFC Kansas City Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC goes outside the Apex on Saturday to bring us a packed card with an intriguing main event. We'll look at all 14 bouts across three platforms, including a debuting fighter with power in his hands, and a jujitsu specialist who may surprise as a big underdog. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Joselyne Edwards ($9,000)
Chelsea Chandler wilted in front of strong wrestler Norma Dumont, against whom she surrendered three takedowns and almost nine minutes of control time. Edwards has discovered that her physicality plays, as evidenced by the nine takedowns she has secured in her last three fights. Chandler doesn't have the footwork to keep herself off the cage, which should result in Edwards finding her hips early and often.
Abus Magomedov ($7,600)
Abus has notched 10 takedowns in his last two bouts, while the wrestling of Anthony Hernandez broke down Michel Pereira before he was finished in Round 5. Pereira's career at middleweight has been marked by quick finishes, but he won't be able to bully Abus in the clinch and has never been a fighter who can sustain offense for long stretches on the feet.
Andre Muniz ($6,900)
This play is based partially on the fact that nothing Ikram Aliskerov has done in the Octagon justifies his status as a huge favorite. The Dagestani's three UFC results include two quick KO/TKO victories over an aging veteran and a chinny wrestler, followed by a quick knockout loss to Robert Whittaker. As such, it's a bit difficult to know how he'll fare against Muniz, a BJJ champion who will pour on the pressure and chase takedowns for the better part of 15 minutes. This is a shot in the dark against an opponent with more to prove, but Muniz's skill set should ensure a spot on the optimal lineup if he can get his game going.
Da'Mon Blackshear ($9,300)
Blackshear is quickly establishing himself as one of the better grapplers at bantamweight, as he is coming off back-to-back submission victories against Cody Stamann and Cody Gibson. He will have every conceivable advantage against Heili Alateng, a brawler who will look to get on the inside to work his wrestling. Even if he ends up on his back, I like the taller fighter to get dominant position here, making it difficult to see how "The Mongolian Knight" will generate offense in this matchup.
John Castaneda ($8,000)
Castaneda is coming off back-to-back fight cancellations, including this rebooking against Chris Gutierrez, which was originally set to take place in March. My analysis hasn't changed from the initial prediction, as Gutierrez is a skilled kickboxer, but fights at such a slow pace that his wins are often uninspiring. As a high-output wrestler, "Sexi Mexi" should be able to outwork his opponent and is in a position where 86-90 points could be enough for the optimal lineup.
Randy Brown ($8,900)
Nicolas Dalby has been known to surprise opponents with his agility, but he'll have a tough time getting past Brown's length and reach. I also expect "Rude Boy" to initiate grappling sequences when Dalby can close the space. The combination of Brown's strength and frame should allow him to control this fight wherever it takes place.
David Onama ($8,800)
Onama's ability to do everything at a high level often yields big scores, and I expect more of the same in his bout with Giga Chikadze. While a prime Chikadze may have been able to exploit the aggressive tendencies of "Silent Assassin," the 36-year-old fights so infrequently these days that it's hard to expect him to keep up with the pace Onama is sure to set. Unless he can land a big counter early, Chikadze could struggle here.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Polyana Viana OVER 15.5 Significant Strikes, Anthony Smith UNDER 17.5 Significant Strikes, and Jimmy Flick OVER 16.5 Significant Strikes
I question whether Jaqueline Amorim will want to close the distance in her usual fashion against Viana, who has been known to snatch submissions off her back. Add in the fact that Viana can keep fighters at range with her kicks, and I expect we will get enough time on the feet for "Dama de Ferro" to clear this total.
Smith has been such a mess in the cage that I might have picked an under against any opponent. Against Zhang Mingyang, I consider it all but a certainty, as the Chinese fighter throws with reckless abandon from the opening bell. Because of this, I can't rule out the possibility that Smith can run into a takedown and find a submission. In either case, I don't expect this one to last very long.
Flick is a grappler in the extreme, but he landed 37 significant strikes in his last fight against Nate Maness. While Matt Schnell is not quite as tall or long as Maness, he will have an advantage in each area. He also has a stiff jab. These elements should keep Flick on the outside for most of the fight, forcing him to strike long enough to exceed this total.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fantasy Score
Ian Garry Scores OVER 45.55 Points and Evan Elder Scores OVER 49.55 Points
It would hardly be surprising to see Garry go to his grappling early to try and slow the explosiveness and power of Carlos Prates. Garry's penchant to yield space to his opponent and back up in straight lines may be all that the Brazilian needs to bag a decisive victory, but we have seen Prates start slow in the past, and Garry has never been finished in 16 professional fights.
The slow pace of Gauge Young may have something to do with the relatively low total here, but Elder will likely force the debutante to match his output, as he lands just north of five significant strikes per minute of cage time. While he hasn't been much of a finisher, I expect the activity to produce a knockdown or takedown at some point, which will help boost our total.
UFC Bets to Consider
Malcolm Wellmaker Wins via KO/TKO (+380)
This matchup seems tailor-made for Wellmaker due to his power and ability to fight going backwards. Cameron Saaiman's speed is easy to fall in love with, but he is so wild and unstructured in the cage that I fully expect him to walk into a hard shot from "The Machine," who has finished three of his last four fights via KO/TKO.
Roberto Romero Wins via KO/TKO (+500)
Timothy Cuamba earns the dubious distinction of a fighter with many tools who I don't think will last long in the UFC. This is due to his nonexistent defense, which led to him eating potential knockout shots from Lucas Almeida for most of their fight. Romero may not have the deepest skill set, but he will pour on the pressure and throw combinations with power. Unless he has made some serious adjustments, this should be enough to put Cuamba away.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Kansas City this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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