Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Nashville
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Nashville card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 185-77-1 ~ Dog Picks 29-22-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Jake Matthews +130
Bet of the Week Record: 13-8-1 +1143
DFS Lock of the Week: Tallison Teixiera - 18-2
Fanduel Captain: Teixiera
Tallison Teixeira (8-0-0) v. Derrick Lewis (28-12-0)
- Height: 6′7″ – Reach: 83″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Massive young athlete with knockout power and a highlight-reel clinch game
- Finished every pro opponent inside five minutes and looked sharp in UFC debut
- Height: 6′3″ – Reach: 79″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 28 wins (23 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions), UFC's all-time knockout king
- Devastating power
- Veteran force, but chin and cardio have flashed cracks in longer battles
DFS Perspective: Teixeira has the size, speed and finishing ferocity to control this early, especially if he keeps it in the clinch and lands elbows the way he did in his debut. However, Lewis is always live -- one clean shot, and the lights go out. Lewis could shock us, but this is Teixeira's time to prove he's the real next thing at heavyweight.
UFC Nashville Pick: Teixeira
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Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) v. Gabriel Bonfim (17-1-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 8 decisions)
- Elite striker with slick footwork and distance control
- Struggles significantly when forced to grapple or defend takedowns
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (3 KO/TKO, 13 submissions, 1 decision)
- Strong submission game with relentless pressure and chaining
- Physically powerful with a clear path to control fights on the mat
DFS Perspective: Thompson has always struggled against grappling-heavy opponents, and this matchup doesn't do him any favors. Bonfim is aggressive, strong and wastes no time closing distance and hunting submissions. If he gets his hands on Thompson early, this could get lopsided fast. Thompson's striking can still keep things interesting on the feet, but the grappling edge here is massive. Bonfim should have his way if he sticks to the game plan.
UFC Nashville Pick: Bonfim
Calvin Kattar (23-9-0) v. Steve Garcia (17-5-0)
- Height: 5′11″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23 wins (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Technical striker with excellent boxing, sharp leg kicks, and veteran fight IQ
- On a four-fight losing skid, he has looked more deflated and slow after each outing
- Height: 6′0″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17 wins (14 KO/TKO, 3 decisions)
- Heavy-handed finisher riding a five-fight win streak, all by KO/TKO
- Power puncher with finishing upside
DFS Perspective: Kattar's sharp on the feet and still packs pop, but that losing streak and deflated energy is real. Garcia comes in on a tear -- hungry, heavy-handed and dynamic. If he lands clean, this could be lights out. I see Garcia breaking through pressure, catching Kattar early and ending this fight.
UFC Nashville Pick: Garcia
Nate Landwehr (18-6-0) v. Morgan Charriere (20-11-1)
- Height: 5′9″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Fearless brawler with unorthodox aggression and highlight-reel output
- Tough as nails - rarely gets finished, but can be pressured and slowed down
- Height: 5′8″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20 wins (12 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Technical striker who mixes knockout power with deceptive grappling
- UFC-tested, durable, and disciplined
DFS Perspective: Landwehr will bring the fire and volume early, but Charrière is more polished without sacrificing power. He's got a cleaner striking blend and can defuse Nate's aggression, then counter with precision. If the fight hits the mat, Charrière's grappling instincts give him another edge. Tactically, I expect Charriere to frustrate Landwehr, pick his spots and deal damage while avoiding chaos.
UFC Nashville Pick: Charriere
Vitor Petrino (11-2-0) v. Austen Lane (13-6-0)
- Height: 6′2″ – Reach: 77″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Explosive striker with knockout power and growing technical polish
- Well-rounded and can fight anywhere
- Height: 6′6″ – Reach: 80″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (11 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision),
- Athletic, heavy-handed former NFL defensive end turned MMA fighter
- Heavy reliance on power - chin and conditioning have been shaky in later rounds
DFS Perspective: Lane's power and size are real, but Petrino is the sharper, more technical fighter; he's already proven he can finish in multiple ways in the UFC. Lane can land bombs, but if Petrino stays composed and uses his wrestling and pace, he'll break down Lane over time.
UFC Nashville Pick: Petrino
Junior Tafa (6-3-0) v. Tuco Tokkos (10-5-0)
- Height: 6′3″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6 wins (6 KO/TKO)
- Heavy-hitting heavyweight known as "The Juggernaut"
- Never goes to decision
- Height: 6′4″ – Reach: 76″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Finisher with KO power and solid ground game
- UFC resume is shaky, losing both fights
DFS Perspective: This isn't a fight I'm rushing to back either side in. Both guys are wild, unrefined and likely fighting for a roster spot. Tafa has at least shown some power and limited success in the Octagon, so he gets the edge on paper, but I think this is a good spot to attack with Tokkos. If Tokkos can force Tafa to the mat, this could be over quickly. Getting to shares of both fighters would be wise.
UFC Nashville Pick: Tokkos
Max Griffin (20-11-0) v. Chris Curtis 31-12-0)
- Height: 5′11″ – Reach: 76″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Smooth boxer-wrestler hybrid with good technical striking
- Durable and steady but generally low-volume
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19 wins (15 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 13 decisions)
- Heavy-handed striker with good power and forward pressure
- Brings more volume and physicality than Griffin
DFS Perspective: This one's shaping up to be a 15-minute striking affair -- and likely one of the lower-scoring DFS matchups. I expect it to go the distance, with Curtis edging Griffin on volume and power. Griffin has clean technique and defense, but Curtis is more aggressive and will be the busier fighter.
UFC Nashville Pick: Curtis
Chidi Njokuani (25-10-0) v. Jake Matthews (21-7-0)
- Height: 6′3″ – Reach: 80″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24 wins (15 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Power striker with serious one-shot knockout upside
- Can get careless on the feet, leaving himself open for counters
- Height: 5′11″ – Reach: 73″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (5 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Veteran technician with solid wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and fight IQ
- Smart fighter who adjusts mid-fight and usually avoids getting KO'd
DFS Perspective: Both fighters have real paths to victory. Njokuani has the power to end this with one punch, but Matthews' experience, discipline and technical game give him the edge. I like him to weather the early storm, neutralize Chidi's power and grind his way to a decision or late finish.
UFC Nashville Pick: Matthews
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Lauren Murphy (16-6-0) v. Eduarda Moura (11-1-0)
- Height: 5′5″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 7 decisions)
- UFC veteran nearing 42, known for grit and cardio, but can slow down late
- Looks like this could be her final fight – limited gas and physical decline possible
- Height: 5′6″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (4 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Explosive young talent with a 100% finish rate in UFC
- Riding momentum after a recent decision win, highly active and aggressive
DFS Perspective: Moura should dominate this one from bell to bell. Murphy is a tough vet, but age and decline loom; she's at her physical peak no more. Moura is stronger, fiendish everywhere and rolling with confidence right now. She'll be faster, more powerful and stick to her game plan without mercy. I expect full control, volume and likely a finish.
UFC Nashville Pick: Moura
Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-5-0) v. Valter Walker (13-1-0)
- Height: 6′5″ – Reach: 83″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14 wins (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Heavy-handed counter-puncher who's flashed highlight-reel power since moving to heavyweight
- Still a bit raw and can get careless under pressure
- Height: 6′6″ – Reach: 78″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Well-rounded heavyweight with a sturdy takedown offense and evolving striking
- Still developing at this level, but heavy-handed and physically strong
DFS Perspective: Nzechukwu gets the edge on reach, power and experience in big moments, but Walker has youth, volume and a real submission threat if he turns this into a grappling match. I'm leaning Nzechukwu for his raw knockout upside, but Walker's takedown ability means there's a real "what if" here. If Walker chains takedowns, he could limit Nzechukwu's power. Still, I trust Nzechukwu to land a big counter and find a finish.
UFC Nashville Pick: Nzechukwu
Mitch Ramirez (8-2-0) v. Mike Davis 11-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision)
- Explosive one-punch finisher with high finishing rate
- Durable enough to push pace, but can get cracked in exchanges -
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Well-rounded striker with solid boxing and fast finishes
- Durable veteran with sharp instincts and ability to win on the feet
DFS Perspective: I'm backing Davis to get back in the win column and wouldn't be shocked to see him finish Ramirez. Ramirez is a live dog -- powerful and aggressive early -- but Davis is smarter, more polished, and knows how to ride out the flash. If he avoids getting caught, I expect Davis to pick his spots and control the fight's pace.
UFC Nashville Pick: Davis
Melissa Martinez (8-1-0) v. Fatima Kline (7-1-0)
- Height: 5′2″ – Reach: 66″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7 wins (5 KO/TKO, 3 decisions)
- Durable with solid boxing and grit under fire
- Works hard but has looked hittable at times
- Height: 5′6″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Explosive strawweight with a high finish rate and strong BJJ base
- UFC-tested already—landed 42–4 in total strikes last time out
DFS Perspective: I'm backing Kline here, and expecting a finish, but she's too big a favorite for my liking. Martinez is tough and can hang, especially if it drags on, but Kline's volume, BJJ and finishing speed give her a clear edge. Fatima's young, hungry and sharp, but the betting line is so one-sided it feels off. Still, she's likely to run through this fight and find a finish sooner rather than later.
UFC Nashville Pick: Kline
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
