Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Paris: Imavov vs. Borralho
The UFC will head to Paris for a 14-fight card packed with names most players won't immediately recognize. While this can make things difficult, it also offers an opportunity to get a leg up on the field through research. We'll take a look at every bout across three platforms, including a Bellator legend looking to go on a run, and a former PFL champion setting his sights on UFC heavyweights. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Kaue Fernandes ($6,800)
Fernandes is the first fighter in some time to receive the designation of "free square," as a late pullout of Fares Ziam has made him a (-170) favorite at a rock-bottom price. Harry Hardwick is an interesting prospect who will come forward and pile on the offense, but Fernandes hits hard and expertly manages distance. I expect the debutante to get hit hard on the way in. He will also be vulnerable to reactive takedowns when he attempts to close the distance.
Caio Borralho ($8,400)
Nassourdine Imavov is a tricky boxer who can force opponents to fight at his pace, but Borralho should have noticeable advantages in speed and strength here. This will help him land first and secure takedowns if he feels the need to change the direction of the bout. The French fighter has an active guard, but Borralho has shown suffocating top pressure that will likely leave his opponent stuck on his back.
Mason Jones ($8,600)
Jones' physicality and ability to do a bit of everything should win the day here. Bolaji Oki is a powerful boxer, but he has a tendency to cede ground to his opponents and can tire later in fights. This will allow Mason to use all of his skills and overwhelm "The Zulu Warrior" with pressure and pace.
Axel Sola ($8,500)
I wouldn't dare call Rhys McKee's first Octagon win unimpressive, but even after delivering three (official) knockdowns, his opponent was still able to work his way back into the fight before it was called off due to a bad lip cut between the first and second round. Sola is very composed in the cage and should be able to wrestle "Skellator" effectively, which we have seen render him ineffectual in the past.
Patricio Freire ($7,300)
The Bellator veteran has given us grapple-heavy performances in the Octagon, and would be wise to offer us another against Losene Keita. "Black Panther" hits hard, but is a pressuring counter-fighter. This could lead to something of a staring match due to "Pitbull's" own style, which is also built on throwing counter shots. Keita stands heavily on his lead leg, which should allow Freire to look for takedown attempts while the two are in the pocket.
Sam Hughes ($9,200)
It's hard seeing this fight being anything other than a wrestling clinic for Hughes, as she has always been strong for the division, and Shauna Bannon comes into this fight with a takedown defense rate of just 46 percent. Bannon is fast and tricky with her strikes, but that won't mean much if "Sampage" can close the distance.
Rinat Fakhretdinov ($7,900)
Andreas Gustafsson made me look bad by completely manhandling Khaos Williams in his UFC debut, but I still hold that a style of running across the cage to get to a clinch as quickly as possible will not translate well to the upper levels of the UFC. Fakhretdinov may be that level, as he is an incredibly strong grappler who is also a better pure wrestler than Gustafsson. We have seen "Gladiator" get tired, so the Swedish fighter will have an opportunity to take this fight over late. However, I am unable to trust "Bane," who may not be able to win the kind of fight he specializes in.
Sam Patterson ($8,600)
While I remain a fan of Trey Waters' boxing, it's apparent that his style is built to beat opponents he can bully with height and reach. He will still have a height advantage against Patterson, but a one-inch reach disadvantage means Waters will be unable to simply lean away from strikes. Patterson will also be able to control "The Truth" on the ground much more easily than his past opponents. Though Patterson has shown a suspect chin, his head movement looked better in his win over Danny Barlow, and he is the more skilled fighter overall.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Oumar Sy UNDER 29.5 Significant Strikes, Robert Bryczek OVER 36.5 Significant Strikes, and William Gomis OVER 46.5 Significant Strikes
Expect Sy to get back to his wrestling in this one, as Brendson Ribeiro hits incredibly hard and stands so upright that fighters can easily get in on his hips. I doubt Sy will want to test his striking against an opponent with legitimate knockout power, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was able to end this fight on the ground.
Bryczek is a hard puncher who seems content to sit behind his jab in space. This will work to extend his fight against Brad Tavares, who wants nothing more than to have a slow-paced kickboxing match. While Tavares' chin has looked shaky in recent fights, he has still only been knocked out five times in 31 career bouts.
William Gomis should have the frame and footwork to keep his distance from Robert Ruchala, who will attempt to bring the fight to the ground, but doesn't have a consistent way of getting to the clinch. Gomis prefers a slow pace, so I expect him to stay on his bike and pick the newcomer apart for three rounds.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Mauricio Ruffy Wins via KO/TKO (+110)
Barreling forward while trying to find takedowns cost Benoit Saint-Denis dearly against grappler Renato Moicano, and things are only going to get worse against a powerful and dynamic striker like Ruffy. While Saint-Denis is relentless in his pursuit, Ruffy has never been taken down in the Octagon, stuffing all nine attempts that have been made against him. The Fighting Nerds have shown up well prepared for all opponents to this point, and I expect the Brazilian to understand the assignment here.
Ante Delija Wins via KO/TKO (+188)
Delija's long, straight power shots should be enough to intercept Marcin Tybura, who generally uses his boxing as a means to get on the inside. The former PFL Heavyweight Champion is strong even among heavyweights, which should make it difficult for the Polish fighter to bring him to the ground. If "Walking Trouble" can keep this fight at range, it may be a short night for the UFC veteran.
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig Fight Goes to Decision (+240)
Craig has earned his reputation as a kill-or-be-killed fighter, but we have seen him go to the cards in the Octagon. This generally occurs when he cannot get a takedown or his opponent can't negotiate the range to land strikes. I expect this to be the dynamic against Bukauskas, who spends most of his time in the cage skirting along the outside before darting in with single power shots. "The Baltic Gladiator" could land a fight-altering shot at some point, but this line is too juicy for a matchup where the competitors will likely spend the majority of the time stalemating against the cage or taking turns striking from kickboxing range.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Paris this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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