UFC Vegas 107 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC returns to the Apex on Saturday for an 11-fight card. While there is less meat here than we might see on a typical slate, we still have plenty of intriguing matchups to consider. We'll break down each fight across three platforms, including a veteran boxer who can still pack some power, and an offensive juggernaut who is a threat to put up big numbers. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Bolaji Oki ($8,900)
I was picking Oki before Marquel Mederos pulled from their bout on Wednesday, and I am even more confident in his prospects against replacement Michael Aswell. A loser in his Contender Series fight in August, Aswell attempts to weaponize pressure and pace while trying to land combinations. The issue is that his inaccuracy allows him to be hit, and Oki is a powerful counter-puncher. Considering that "The Zulu Warrior" is also a strong wrestler, it is unclear how Aswell will gain the upper hand in this matchup.
Erin Blanchfield ($9,100)
It's easy to think of Blanchfield as a one-note grappler, but "Cold Blooded" has notched over 100 significant strikes in each of her last two five-round fights, outlanding one of the best strikers in the division from range in Rose Namajunas. Maycee Barber can do a bit of everything in the cage, but Blanchfield's forward pressure will prevent "The Future" from striking on her terms, and she won't be able to keep up when the fight hits the floor.
Billy Goff ($8,300)
Neither Goff nor Ramiz Brahimaj will face their original opponents on Saturday, as pull-outs from Seok Hyun Ko and Oban Elliott left a window for this matchup. While Brahimaj has a power wrestling game, we saw how easily aging veteran Court McGee controlled him in 2022. Goff will be on the front foot from the opening bell and should be able to overwhelm the 32-year-old with constant offense.
Ketlen Vieira ($8,200)
From Sijara Eubanks to Kayla Harrison, Vieira has spent much of the last five years training to fight physically strong grapplers. This should have prepared her for a matchup against Macy Chiasson, who wants to use her size to get on the inside and drag her opponents to the ground. We saw how vulnerable Chiasson can be on the feet in her fight with Mayra Bueno Silva, and Veira's sharp, powerful hands should be able to cause real problems for Chiasson at range.
Jafel Filho ($7,600)
Both Filho and Allan Nascimento do their best work on the ground. As I don't see a ton that separates these two in the technique department, I will give the nod to Filho, who is more agile and aggressive on the feet. This aggression should allow him to dictate terms, making the grappling exchanges easier to navigate.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Bruno Lopes OVER 35.5 Significant Strikes, and Alice Ardelean UNDER 60.5 Significant Strikes
Lopes has been a dedicated finisher on the regional scene, but Dustin Jacoby has been difficult to ground in the latter half of his UFC career, as he has not been taken down more than once in any of his last nine fights. The Brazilian uses a solid jab to set up his power shots, but Jacoby's ability to avoid danger should help prolong the bout.
Ardelean should have problems getting her offense going against Rayanne Amanda, who is going to march her opponent down and use her size to control the range and shut down any offensive wrestling attempts. While this may not result in a finish, it's tough to imagine that Ardelean will be able to sustain enough momentum to clear this line.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Takedowns
Mateusz Gamrot OVER 3.5 Takedowns and Jordan Leavitt UNDER 2.5 Takedowns
While the line may seem large for a three-round contest, Gamrot has cleared it in every UFC fight in which he has not found a finish. L'udovit Klein has been stopped just three times in 27 professional fights, which gives me confidence that he will see the later rounds. Klein is known for his fast and powerful striking, but he tends to be flatfooted in the pocket, which should give "Gamer" every opportunity to bring this fight to the ground.
A grappler by trade, Leavitt has shown that he will strike with opponents who are willing to lead the dance. Kurt Holobaugh's style is marked by pressure, which will make it difficult for "The Monkey King" to find takedown attempts. Leavitt's agility, combined with Holobaugh's inability to cut off the cage, should allow the 29-year-old to score with counter shots, encouraging him to keep the fight at distance.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Zachary Reese Wins via KO/TKO (+100)
Dusko Todorovic's kill-or-be-killed style has left him on the wrong end of the ledger more often than not lately, as he has lost three of his last four fights by first-round knockout. Lack of head movement on both sides of this matchup means that either man can finish, but I'm giving the nod to Reese due to three-inch advantages in both height and reach. We've seen Reese take fights to his opponents with straight, powerful shots. These should find their target before the looping offerings of "Thunder."
Trevin Giles Wins via KO/TKO (+480)
Andreas Gustafsson's style is reminiscent of early-career Justin Gaethje without the devastating weapons. The Swedish fighter throws big, wild shots at the start of each round, intending to close the distance and rough his opponent up in the clinch. This is a style I can't pick to work against any decent opponent at this level, and Giles has always featured solid boxing and good agility to go along with his power. Unless he can't figure out what to do with a fighter breathing down his neck, Giles should be able to sting Gustafsson with long jabs before finding the killshot.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 107 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
