BetRivers 200
Location: Dover, DE
Course: Dover Motor Speedway
Format: 1-mile oval
Laps: 200
BetRivers 200 Preview
We've had a significant stretch of road course racing in the last month, with three of the last five races coming in Mexico City, Chicago and Sonoma. Two road courses remain, including the Roval in the Round of 12, but we'll head back to traditional ovals in the meantime. That should open up the field back up after we've seen dominant efforts from Shane van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch in recent weekends.
Key Stats at Dover Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 78
- Winners from pole: 8
- Winners from top-5 starters: 44
- Winners from top-10 starters: 55
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 7
Last 10 Winners at Dover Motor Speedway
2024- Ryan Truex
2023 – Ryan Truex
2022- Josh Berry
2021- Austin Cindric
2020- Chase Briscoe
2020 – Justin Allgaier
2019 – Cole Custer
2019 – Christopher Bell
2018 – Christopher Bell
2017- Ryan Blaney
We're back to a traditional oval, which also means we have a lengthy history at the track. The Xfinity Series has run 78 races at Dover, dating back to 1982 when Pontiac, Oldsmobile and Buick were among the manufacturers. Given that, some of the data above should be taken with a grain of salt. Track position is undoubtedly still important, but only five of the last 10 winners have started inside the top five and three have started outside the top 10 – the lowest of which came when Austin Cindric started 16th.
The winner's list is also a who's who of the sport, littered with successful drivers in both the Cup and Xfinity series. Ryan Truex stands out as the winner of the last two races here, which is notable given Dover's unique characteristics. The track has some of the most extreme banking the series will travel to, and is unique in that it is entirely concrete.
RotoWire NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the BetRivers 200 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Justin Allgaier - $12,000
Ross Chastain - $11,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sheldon Creed - $9,800
Austin Hill - $9,500
Jesse Love- $9,200
Sam Mayer - $9,000
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Brandon Jones - $8,500
Sammy Smith - $8,300
Ryan Truex - $8,000
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Nick Sanchez - $7,500
Harrison Burton - $7,200
Jeb Burton - $7,000
Parker Retzlaff - $6,400
Xfinity Series DFS Picks for the BetRivers 200
Ross Chastain - $11,500
Brandon Jones - $8,500
Sammy Smith - $8,300
Ryan Truex - $8,000
Jeb Burton - $7,000
Parker Retzlaff - $6,400
Dover offers a unique opportunity for lineups. It's a traditional track in some sense, most notably that it's a historic venue for NASCAR and it's an oval. That already makes it different than what we've seen in the last few weeks at road and street courses. However, what is similar is that the driver's historic results at the track matter. There also aren't many comparable tracks and the Truck Series hasn't been to Dover in 2020, meaning there aren't a lot of data points for rookies. That isn't to say they can't be rostered, but it is a week to perhaps approach them with a bit more caution.
That theme flows throughout the selected lineup above. There's immediately a choice between Allgaier and Chastain, who make up the top tier pretty convincingly. Chastain has an excellent record at the track in the Cup Series and checks in slightly cheaper, so we'll lean toward his direction. That said, there's no wrong answer in Tier 1.
There are also familiar names in Tier 2, but in a feature we don't often see, Tier 3 arguably offers even better values. Jones is an ace at the track, tallying three top-10 finishes and two poles in his last five starts. His speed hasn't necessarily translated into one outstanding finish, but if he keeps putting himself in play, that should change. Smith is more of a dice role, but his 92.0 driver rating in two career starts at Dover puts him on the map. Truex is the two-time defending winner of the race and leads the way with 126 laps led in the last three races.
From there, it's filling in the value picks. Burton is a steady hand who has delivered those exact results at Dover. Retzlaff is a Dover special, as he's logged a top-10 finish and started fifth in two separate races in his three-race sample at the track.
Xfinity Series Best Bets for the BetRivers 200
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:30 AM ET Saturday
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Sheldon Creed (-105) vs. Connor Zilisch (-130)
Sam Mayer (-125) vs. Carson Kvapil (-105)
Brandon Jones (-120) vs. Sammy Smith (-110)
Race Winner: Ross Chastain (+350), Justin Allgaier (+260), Brandon Jones (+1800), Ryan Truex (+3500)
We've made the case for all of the race winners in the DFS section above, but it is refreshing to return to a week where there are more than two legitimate potential race winners. That brings us some nicer longshot values in addition to the relatively obvious favorites.
All of the head-to-head matchups are fairly tight, which shouldn't come as a big surprise. A few aren't worth trying to parse in my opinion, but even the remaining ones listed are difficult calls. The one that stands out is Jones' track record at the track, relative to Smith. Creed against Zilisch is a very close call, so I lean toward the extra value in that matchup.
Kvapil had an exceptional showing in Dover last season, just his second Xfinity race. However, he qualified 26th so his true speed at the track is still to be determined.
Mapping out your wagers for the Xfinity Series race? Check out the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes to get special offers and make the most of your bets.
