This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Top French Open 2025 Upsets and Betting Opportunities
The first round of the French Open continues Monday from the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. A lack of recent match play has a big name on the women's side on upset alert, while a star on the men's side simply may no longer have what it takes to keep up with players more than a decade younger than him, and a seeded American will look to add to his list of decent French Open showings.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
French Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Tatjana Maria (+350) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Krejcikova has been sidelined for almost all of 2025 by a back injury. Her first match back came last week at Strasbourg, where she lost 6-3, 6-3 to Magda Linette. The 79th-ranked Maria heads into this tournament on a seven-match losing streak, but the crafty veteran will test Krecjikova's fitness with plenty of low slices and drop shots. Given Krejcikova's lack of matches this year, it's hard to consider her a heavy favorite against any top-100 opponent, especially on clay, where she's 0-5 since the start of 2024.
Pedro Martinez (+180) vs. Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov seemed to find his form on the hard courts earlier in 2025 but has had a tough clay season, as his 1-4 record in this surface includes two losses to players ranked outside the top 150. The Canadian's high-risk game doesn't typically mesh well with the slower clay-court conditions, which is why he's just 6-6 at the French Open in his career and hasn't made it past the third round at Roland Garros while reaching at least the quarterfinals at each of the other three majors. Martinez, on the other hand, is a clay-court specialist, as the Spaniard's lone ATP title and six of his seven career Challenger level titles have come on clay. Martinez is 17 spots behind No. 31 Shapovalov in the rankings, but Shapovalov certainly hasn't shown anywhere near top-50 clay-court form in 2025.
Honorable Mention
Robin Montgomery (+180) vs. Diane Parry
French Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Camila Osorio (-275) vs. Arantxa Rus
Osorio has a solid 9-4 clay-court record in 2025, and the craft Colombian's steady diet of spins and slices are most frustrating for opponents on this surface. Rus' forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court, but it hasn't helped the 34-year-old lefty find any success at Roland Garros in recent years, as she's just 1-7 at this tournament since reaching the Round of 16 back in 2012. Rus has dropped to 94th in the rankings with a 12-16 overall record in 2025, while the 23-year-old Osorio's up to No. 51.
Jacob Fearnley (-215) vs. Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka's a shell of his former self at age 40. He's in the draw thanks to a wild card, having gone just 1-7 in 2025 and dropped to 138th in the rankings. Fearnley's ranked 55th, and his 9-8 record in 2025 includes a 5-4 mark on clay. The 23-year-old Brit even picked up a top-20 win over Tomas Machac on this surface last month in Madrid. While he would likely be no match for prime Wawrinka, Fearnley's the clear favorite over the current diminished version.
Honorable Mention
Ekaterina Alexandrova (-400) vs. Lucia Bronzetti
French Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Sebastian Korda (-125) vs. Luciano Darderi
Korda's game is better suited for clay than most Americans, as he's more well-rounded off the ground than the majority of his compatriots. He has made at least the third round in three of five previous French Open appearances and is well positioned to do so again as the No. 23 seed. Darderi's a talented player who has ascended to No. 45 in the rankings, but the 23-year-old Italian still needs to work on his point construction and has been flagging a bit heading into this tournament, with a 3-5 record in his last eight matches, including two losses to players ranked outside the top 100.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (+125) vs. Jaume Munar
There isn't much separating these two, as Ugo Carabelli has a six-spot edge in the rankings at No. 51. Both players prefer clay and have similar records in 2025, with Ugo Carabelli at 11-10 and Munar at 13-11. The 28-year-old Munar has a much lengthier history of coming up short in Grand Slams, having failed to make it past the second round in 24 previous Grand Slam main draw appearances. The 25-year-old Ugo Carabelli is in just his fourth Grand Slam main draw and reached the second round in his only previous French Open appearance. They have split two previous meetings on the Challenger Tour, both on clay, but Munar's win was back in 2021 while Ugo Carabelli's came in 2024, and that most recent result gives the latter the slight edge here, making Ugo Carabelli a nice value as a modest underdog.
Honorable Mention
Yunchaokete Bu (+125) vs. Filip Misolic
