The quarterfinals of the Australian Open continue Wednesday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia, with the action starting Tuesday night in the United States. Three Americans will be in action, and at least one will secure a spot in the semifinals. Both men's matches feature obvious favorites with substantial head-to-head advantages against their opponents, while both women's matches are expected to be close.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Ben Shelton (+920) vs. Jannik Sinner
Shelton's chances of winning this match outright aren't great, but the risk/reward ratio looks good at +920 considering we have already seen Sinner wobble at this tournament. Shelton has produced a hard-court win over Sinner in his career, albeit as part of a 1-8 overall record (1-6 on hard courts). Sinner struggled with the heat earlier in this tournament, so it's unfortunate for Shelton that conditions have cooled down substantially, but the American can still bring some heat with his game, especially on the serve and forehand. Shelton has also worked hard to improve his net game and backhand, the latter of which Sinner has exploited in their recent matchups. Sinner's lucky to still be in the tournament considering he was teetering on the edge of his body breaking down when they closed the roof in his third-round match, and he previously took advantage of a second chance to win the title at Wimbledon last year when a Grigor Dimitrov injury derailed the Bulgarian's upset bid, so Sinner's certainly a rightful favorite in this match, but the two-time defending Australian Open champion is facing a substantial increase in difficulty against the No. 8 seed after reaching the quarterfinals without facing a top-20 seed. Shelton faded after losing first-set tiebreaks to Sinner at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon last year, so maintaining focus and confidence will be key for the 23-year-old Shelton, in addition to serving well.
Australian Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Novak Djokovic (-293) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Djokovic has a dominant 9-1 head-to-head edge over Musetti, and both of their previous matchups on outdoor hard courts were routine straight-set wins for the Serb. Musetti has improved on hard courts, as he's in his second consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal on this surface, but the fifth-ranked Italian remains less comfortable in these conditions compared to playing on natural clay and grass surfaces, where the effectiveness of his elite feel and precise movement are magnified. Musetti has faded physically in their previous best-of-five set encounters, and the 38-year-old Djokovic will be fresh after advancing on a walkover in the Round of 16. Djokovic has only a one-spot edge in the rankings at No. 4, but the gap in their hard-court Grand Slam resumes is enormous and Djokovic should go into this match with an effective game plan as usual.
Australian Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Amanda Anisimova (-123) vs. Jessica Pegula
Anisimova is two matches away from reaching a third consecutive Grand Slam final, having established herself as one of the top contenders on the WTA Tour while climbing up to No. 4 in the rankings, two spots ahead of Pegula. Both Americans have played well in this tournament, as neither has dropped a set. Pegula will try to execute a similar game plan to what got her the win over defending champion Madison Keys in her previous match -- limit errors, attack second serve returns and weather the storm when the harder hitter gets hot. That approach worked against Keys, who supplied enough errors for Pegula to notch a straight-set win, but Anisimova's edge in power will allow the younger American to control play, and Pegula's unlikely to have the answers if Anisimova delivers a relatively clean performance. Pegula's power deficit against the cream of the crop on the WTA Tour helps explain the 31-year-old American's unimpressive 2-6 record in Grand Slam quarterfinals, including 0-3 at the Australian Open. The 24-year-old Anisimova already has more wins at this stage in majors, with a 3-1 career record in Grand Slam quarterfinals. Pegula has a 3-0 head-to-head edge, but all three meetings came prior to Anisimova's breakout 2025 campaign, during which Anisimova unlocked new levels of mental and physical fitness on court.
Honorable Mention
Iga Swiatek (+100) vs. Elena Rybakina
