Both Australian Open women's semifinals will be played Thursday on the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia. None of the four players taking the court Thursday have dropped a set in this tournament, and both matchups present intriguing contrasts between styles.
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All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Thursday's women's semifinal matches.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Sabalenka vs. Svitolina
Aryna Sabalenka (-378) vs. Elina Svitolina (+297)
Sabalenka is a match away from reaching a fourth consecutive final at the Australian Open, and she has yet to drop a set at this year's tournament, though she also hasn't faced a top-16 seed. The 12th-seeded Svitolina has also reached the semifinals without dropping a set, which is a more impressive feat considering the 31-year-old Ukrainian took out No. 8 seed Mirra Andreeva and No. 3 seed Coco Gauff in her previous two matches. Both Andreeva and Gauff are superb athletes but don't have the pure power of Sabalenka and can break down on the forehand wing while tending toward defensive tennis when the going gets tough. This will be a far different stylistic matchup since Sabalenka's likely to get on the front foot more often and force Svitolina to defend.
Sabalenka holds a 5-1 head-to-head edge over Svitolina, with each of their last two matchups resulting in straight-set wins for the top-ranked Belarusian. Svitolina's only win over Sabalenka came on clay in 2020, while Sabalenka's 2-0 against Svitolina on hard courts. With both players rolling to begin the year, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see this match go the distance, but the tale of the tape clearly breaks down in Sabalenka's favor. The semifinal stage has previously been a hard stop at Grand Slams for the 12th-ranked Svitolina, who is 0-3 in major SFs. Sabalenka has won her last six hard-court Grand Slam semifinals and is 7-6 in major SFs overall.
Australian Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Sabalenka def. Svitolina 6-3, 4-6, 6-3
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Rybakina vs. Pegula
Elena Rybakina (-222) vs. Jessica Pegula (+179)
Rybakina has carried the momentum from her strong finish to 2025 into 2026. She beat Amanda Anisimova, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Iga Swiatek, Pegula and Sabalenka en route to winning the WTA Finals in Riyadh and has the potential to beat Swiatek, Pegula and Sabalenka consecutively again here. In her Australian Open quarterfinal win over Swiatek, Rybakina managed to hang around while making fewer than 50 percent of her first serves in the first set, then found her serving rhythm in the second set to pull away for a 7-5, 6-1 victory. Rybakina's serve will be the key factor to watch in this match as well, as she can take the racquet out of Pegula's hands with a strong serving performance, but Pegula is among the WTA's most adept players at attacking second serves. Neither Pegula nor Rybakina have dropped a set in this tournament, with Pegula coming off consecutive wins over top-10 American seeds in No. 9 Madison Keys and No. 4 Anisimova.
Just one spot separates Rybakina and Pegula in the rankings and their head-to-head is tied 3-3, all on hard courts. Rybakina won both of their meetings in 2025, and you have to go back to 2023 for Pegula's last win over Rybakina. Both players have been ranked as high as No. 3. The most obvious difference in their careers is Rybakina's 2022 Wimbledon title, while Pegula is still looking to fill the Grand Slam title-sized hole on her resume. They have each been to one Grand Slam final on hard courts, with Rybakina making it at the 2023 Australian Open and Pegula getting there at the 2024 U.S. Open. Both lost to Sabalenka. The zoomed-out view suggests this matchup is close to 50-50, but Rybakina has the edge based on her recent performances against top players and her game's higher ceiling.
Australian Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Rybakina def. Pegula 5-7, 6-2, 6-4
