This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
French Open Women's Semifinals: Can American Coco Gauff Reach the Final?
Both French Open women's semifinals will be played Thursday from the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. Two of the biggest names in the sport will face off in one semifinal, while an American favorite tries to end a French Cinderella story.
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All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Thursday's women's semifinal matches.
French Open Tennis Odds: Sabalenka vs. Swiatek
Aryna Sabalenka (-135) vs. Iga Swiatek (+110)
These two multi-time Grand Slam champions don't have many surprises to throw at each other. They have spent most of the past few seasons occupying the top two spots in the rankings and have played 12 times, all within the past five years. Swiatek leads their head-to-head 8-4, including 5-2 on clay. The queen of clay has dropped to the fifth seed due to some uncharacteristic early losses in 2025, but there's no substitute for Swiatek's four French Open titles and 37-1 record in her last eight French Open matches. Swiatek has found her form at the site of all that success, battling back from a 6-1, 2-0 deficit to defeat Elena Rybakina 1-6, 6-3, 7-5 in the Round of 16 and getting through her other four matches without dropping a set.
Swiatek's controlled aggression and superior defensive capabilities make her the more natural player on clay compared to Sabalenka. The No. 1 ranked Belarusian's power plays well everywhere, but this particular matchup tilts more in Sabalenka's favor on faster courts -- there's a reason all three of her Grand Slam titles have come on hard courts. Sabalenka has been the more consistent player in 2025, with a 39-6 record compared to Swiatek's 32-9 mark, but this is Swiatek's match to lose on clay. The pressure of expectations seems to have been a major contributor to Swiatek's swoon in 2025, but she can swing freely in this match knowing there's no shame in losing to the world No. 1, while Sabalenka faces more pressure in her attempt to reach the French Open final for the first time in her career.
French Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Swiatek def. Sabalenka 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
French Open Tennis Odds: Gauff vs. Boisson
Coco Gauff (-500) vs. Lois Boisson (+380)
Boisson's run has gotten significantly more impressive with each passing victory lately, not just because she's getting further but because of which players she has been beating to advance. The 361st-ranked Frenchwoman is a great story, making the semifinals as a wild card here in her Grand Slam main draw debut at age 22, one year after an ACL tear in her knee just a week before the 2024 French Open cost her a chance to make that debut. Her first-round upset of No. 24 seed Elise Mertens followed by a pair of wins over unseeded opponents got Boisson to the Round of 16, but her run really reached a different level after that point, as she beat No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the Round of 16, then backed it up with a 7-6 (6), 6-3 win over No. 6 seed Mirra Andreeva. Does this Cinderella run still have some time before the clock strikes midnight, or will Gauff be the one to turn Boisson back into a pumpkin?
On the bright side for Gauff, Pegula isn't a clay-courter and Andreeva didn't quite have the maturity to overcome a hostile French crowd at age 18. Gauff's only 21 herself, but she has the experience of a seasoned veteran, having already won a Grand Slam at the 2023 U.S. Open in addition to reaching the French Open final in 2022. While she hasn't yet gotten over the hump at Roland Garros, Gauff reached at least the quarterfinals and lost to the eventual champion each of the previous four years, with three of those losses coming against Swiatek. Gauff has recently started to make inroads in head-to-head matchups against Swiatek, so the American has some reason to believe a potential rematch could go differently, but she can't afford to look past Boisson like the wild card's previous two opponents did. That said, Gauff is the far more accomplished player for a reason, and she has the skillset to either defend and wear Boisson out or seize the initiative with offense, depending on what the moment calls for.
French Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Gauff def. Boisson 6-2, 6-7, 6-2
