The first Masters 1000 event of 2026 begins Wednesday, March 4 from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. The Indian Wells Open was one of the few prominent tournaments that wasn't won by Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner in 2025, but that's expected to change this year, with the world's top two players towering above the field as co-favorites to win the title. Five-time Indian Wells champion Novak Djokovic is the best of the rest in terms of title odds, though he hasn't won this tournament in a decade. The top 32 seeds all have byes into the second round of the 96-player draw at Indian Wells, where all matches are best-of-three sets.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at Indian Wells, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Last year's runner-up Holger Rune (Achilles) remains sidelined by an injury that's expected to keep him out for most or all of 2026. Tomas Machac (illness) and Tallon Griekspoor (hamstring) will also miss this tournament. On the bright side, defending Indian Wells champion Jack Draper (arm), as well as Arthur Fils (back), have recovered from the injuries that sidelined them at the Australian Open.
There's a big gap in odds between the top two favorites on the men's side and the rest of the field, then another large gap after a group of secondary contenders headlined by Djokovic. After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Other best sports betting sites for betting both tennis futures and individual matches include FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. Tennis Odds & Lines can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple sports betting apps. We offer exclusive sportsbook promos in states where sports betting has gone live.
Indian Wells Open ATP Picks
The Favorites for the 2026 Indian Wells Open
Carlos Alcaraz (+150) - Alcaraz is off to a perfect 12-0 start in 2025. He won the Australian Open to complete the career Grand Slam at age 22 and capture his seventh major title, then tacked on his 26th career title in Doha. The world No. 1 has a 10-6 career head-to-head advantage against Sinner, including 7-3 on hard courts. Alcaraz surprisingly failed to claim the Indian Wells title last year in Sinner's absence, falling to Draper in the semifinals, but the Spaniard's 68-5 record in his last 73 matches shows that he's a good bet to win any tournament he enters. Alcaraz has a tricky early draw, with Grigor Dimitrov as a possible second-round opponent and giant-slayer Botic van de Zandschulp as a potential third-round foe. Casper Ruud is his chalk Round of 16 opponent, and Alcaraz could possibly face Alex de Minaur or Alexander Bublik in the quarterfinals before potential popcorn matches against Djokovic in the semifinals and Sinner in the final.
Jannik Sinner (+150) - As mentioned above, Sinner and Alcaraz are co-favorites to win the Indian Wells title, with identical odds from DraftKings. Sinner's off to a slow start by his lofty standards in 2026, with losses to Djokovic at the Australian Open and Jakub Mensik in Doha accounting for the blemishes on the Italian's 7-2 record. Those two hard-court losses match the total number of hard-court defeats to opponents other than Alcaraz that Sinner had across the entire 2024 and 2025 seasons combined. Sinner's section of the Indian Wells draw has some intriguing names in it, as he could face Stefanos Tsitsipas or Denis Shapovalov in the third round, then Karen Khachanov, Tommy Paul or Joao Fonseca in the Round of 16. Things could get even trickier in the quarterfinals, when Sinner would likely face either Mensik or big-serving American Ben Shelton. No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev is Sinner's chalk semifinal opponent. Despite that difficult path, the second-seeded Sinner is well equipped to make another deep run at Indian Wells. He didn't play here in 2025 but reached the semifinals in both 2023 and 2024, losing to Alcaraz on both occasions.
In the Mix for the 2026 Indian Wells Open
Novak Djokovic (+1300) - Djokovic showed at the Australian Open that he still has some gas left in the tank at age 38, as he beat Sinner in a five-set semifinal thriller before falling to Alcaraz in a competitive four-set final. The 24-time Grand Slam champion still gets up for Grand Slams, but Djokovic's play hasn't been as sharp at the Masters 1000 level in recent years. He hasn't won a Masters 1000 title since 2023, and the last time he reached the quarterfinals or better at Indian Wells was back in 2016, when Djokovic claimed his fifth Indian Wells title. Djokovic would be highly motivated if he can get to a semifinal matchup against Alcaraz, but the Serb will have to play his way into form first in his first action since the Australian Open. Big servers Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Hubert Hurkacz present potential obstacles in the second and third rounds, respectively, while Draper in the Round of 16 and one of Taylor Fritz or Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals are also more than capable of taking Djokovic out in a best-of-three set match.
Daniil Medvedev (+2200), Alexander Zverev (+2200) and Ben Shelton (+2800) make up the tier below Djokovic. Medvedev is a fade at +2200, as he's riding on hard-court form from years past that he hasn't displayed for more than a year now. The 11th-seeded Russian has a tough path from the Round of 16 onward, potentially having to face Fritz then Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner consecutively. Medvedev has won two smaller titles this year but also has hard-court losses to Learner Tien, Ugo Humbert and Tsitsipas. Zverev pushed Alcaraz to the limit in a five-set Australian Open semifinal. The 6-foot-6 German has come up short between the ears in the biggest moments of his career, but Zverev certainly has the skills to contend for this title given the reduced pressure at the Masters 1000 level compared to Grand Slams. He has six Masters 1000 titles, two ATP Finals titles and an Olympic gold medal to his name. Zverev's a nice value at +2800, as he's favored to reach the SFs as the No. 4 seed. Shelton's big serve and exciting offense have helped him consistently get by everyone but the top contenders in big tournaments, but his 1-18 combined record against Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic and Zverev doesn't inspire much confidence, and Sinner's the chalk QF opponent for the No. 8 seed.
Taylor Fritz (+3500), Felix Auger-Aliassime (+4000) and Alex de Minaur (+4000) round out the list of secondary contenders before the title odds plummet to +6500 or worse for remaining individuals in the field. Fritz is the most notable member of this group, as he's a local kid who has played some of his best tennis at Indian Wells, having won his only career Masters 1000 title here in 2022. Beating Medvedev, Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner consecutively is too tall of an ask for the 6-foot-5 American, though, and that's the path the seventh-seeded Fritz could face here. Auger-Aliassime gets a big chunk of his ranking points indoors, and while the No. 9 seed has a decent path to the quarterfinals in fifth-seeded Lorenzo Musetti's section, FAA would be a clear QF underdog against Zverev at that point and even more so against Sinner in a potential semifinal. De Minaur has a high floor thanks to his elite speed and defense but lacks the weapons to hang with the likes of Alcaraz, whom the sixth-seeded Australian counterpuncher could face in the quarterfinals.
Sleepers for the 2026 Indian Wells Open
Jack Draper (+6500) - Draper has been held back by injuries, but the No. 14 seed is one of the top performers on the ATP Tour when healthy. He got a couple matches under his belt in Dubai to shake off the rust in his return from an arm injury, and Draper's a low-risk, high-reward pick at +6500 odds as he tries to defend his 2025 Indian Wells title. That result didn't come completely out of the blue for the British southpaw, as Draper also flashed his hard-court bona fides by reaching the semifinals of the 2024 U.S. Open. Draper could face Djokovic in the Round of 16.
Jakub Mensik (+10000) - Mensik's on the verge of breaking into the top 10, and the 20-year-old Czech could be there to stay once he gets there. He turned heads with a win over Sinner in Doha two weeks ago, and Mensik proved he can sustain a high level for an entire tournament by winning a hard-court Masters 1000 event at the Miami Open last year. The 12th-seeded Mensik is one of the few players who can trade baseline blows with the likes of Sinner, and they could be headed for a rematch in the quarterfinals here, though Mensik may first have to get past Shelton in a Round of 16 battle of rising stars that would feature plenty of big serves and forehands.
Arthur Fils (+13000) - Like Draper, Fils began 2026 on the shelf due to an injury. The talented Frenchman has since recovered from the back problem that sidelined him for second half of 2025, and Fils announced his return to the ATP Tour with a run to the final in Doha, where he beat Mensik before falling to Alcaraz. Prior to the injury, Fils had climbed as high as 14th in the rankings. His aggressive game style, which is reminiscent of former French great Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, fits nicely on hard courts. This is an intriguing buy-low opportunity on the 30th-seeded Fils, who should have little trouble building his ranking back up if he can stay healthy. Fils is arguably a better hard-court player than the fifth-seeded Musetti, whom he could face in the third round.
Indian Wells Open Prediction
As has been the case for a while now, it's Sinner and Alcaraz against the field, and it's tough to make a compelling case for the field to take this one. Between the two co-favorites, Alcaraz stands out as the better bet thanks to his superior form to start 2026 and favorable head-to-head history against Sinner, both overall and specifically at Indian Wells. This tournament features some of the slowest hard courts on the pro circuit, which makes the speedy Alcaraz even more difficult to hit through, while his ability to generate power off the ground and get forward effectively to take away time help Alcaraz remain effective on offense despite the slow conditions. Hence, Carlos Alcaraz is my pick to win the Indian Wells title and continue his perfect start to 2026.
