The college baseball season just got a whole lot better -- conference play is back!
Not only does this mark the real meat and potatoes of the regular season, but now the real projecting starts. I'm overcome with joy because looking at the board, it's like a five-star buffet.
It's hard to know which station to stop at first, but I've got my eye on a good one.
Texas A&M Aggies (-115) @ Oklahoma Sooners (-115) | Total: N/A
There are some real bangers for the start of SEC play, but one of the better ones is this matchup. We saw these two teams give us a couple great contests back in the 2022 College World Series. It's a huge litmus test for both as the attempt to get back to Omaha. Both have talent, but there are some valid questions when it comes to postseason legitimacy.
I haven't touched on Oklahoma much to start the year, so we'll start there. One thing head coach Skip Johnson is known for is his "pitching school," which has turned out some stud prospects in the last few years like Cade Horton, Cade Cavalli and Kyson Witherspoon. In typical fashion, he went out and got himself some new firepower for a retooled staff.
One of those pitchers is LHP Cam Johnson, who transferred from LSU last season but didn't click right away. After making some big adjustments, the dividends are paying off. The 6-6, 256-pound hoss did enough to earn the Friday night role out of the gate, and all he has done is shove. Pitching to a 2.11 ERA, 32:5 K:BB ratio in 21.2 IP, Johnson's big adjustments came from cleaner mechanics and more efficiency. Transitioning from a max-effort triple-digit guy, he now throws a smooth, effortless 93-97 MPH pitcher with an array of secondaries that draw plenty of swing and miss.
He will need that approach as he sees a Texas A&M lineup with some dudes. The Aggie offensive firepower starts with three potential 2026 first-rounders in Caden "Instant Offense" Sorrell (.407 BA, 8 HR, 28 RBI), Gavin Grahovac (.350 BA, 2 HR) and Chris Hacopian (.455 BA, 1 HR). Hacopian has dealt with some back issues, so his status is leaning toward out in this contest. But Terrence Kiel (.404 BA, 6 SB) and Nico Partida (.382 BA, 4 HR) are also future high-round picks.
As a team, A&M is batting .344 with 32 home runs and an average of about 10 runs per game. For Johnson to continue his success, he has to keep the ball in the yard, especially against some fierce hitters. That means mixing pitches in the strike zone and setting the tone with top-of-the-table heaters.
Oklahoma will be seeing LHP Shane Sdao. He was so good as the Sunday guy in 2024, pitching to a 2.96 ERA and 55:9 K:BB ratio across 48.2 IP. After tearing his UCL in the Super Regionals he missed all of last season, but now he's back as the Friday ace. Coming into SEC play, the bounceback looks good with a 2.49 ERA and 25 K/2 BB ratio in 25.1 frames. Sdao's signature is his impeccable command, which helps him limit the free passes.
He faces a Sooner lineup that has one philosophy -- running. Go back four years or so and you will see Oklahoma among the top base-stealing team every season. Baserunning coach Reggie Willits has instilled fear in opposing defenses. Oklahoma's 56 stolen bases this season rank top-5 in the country. But it's not just the run game that has Oklahoma humming, as they have gotten meaningful contributions at the plate from several sources.
Deiten Lachance (.404 BA, 1.080 OPS), Brendan Brock (.351 BA, 4 HR, 1.131 OPS), and Trey Gambill (.342 BA, 3 HR, 1.157 OPS) are setting the tone, but there are three other guys hitting over .300. It's not a lineup that will likely be a bludgeoning force throughout the year, so for Sdao to succeed, it will come down to limiting the traffic.
I'm excited to lock in for this one. I think A&M has a good chance to pull the road upset, but I like Oklahoma's formula a little more. The odds are fair and accurate, creating a true "50-50" matchup. Whether Oklahoma wins or not Friday night, I'm going right back to them Saturday with white-hot UNLV transfer LJ Mercurius and his 0.39 ERA is lurking.
The Pick: Oklahoma ML (-115 DraftKings)
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