This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Props Today: MLB Betting Picks for 4/16
It's April and it's a Wednesday, which means we get about 12 consecutive hours of major league baseball! Let's try to make some money!
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Guardians vs. Orioles
The Orioles have gotten off to a choppy start this season, to say the least. The Orioles' rebuild started to bear fruit in the last few years as their stable of excellent hitting prospects has started to thrive in MLB. Well, a few of them at least like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg.
The Cubs and Astros went this route last decade and added top shelf SP's to the mix and won titles. The Orioles have sort of kind of sort of gone down that path, but they only got 1 season out of Corbin Burnes before he left for Arizona. They traded for Zach Eflin, too, but he's more of a good number 2 or number 3 starter, and he's now injured.
The O's did produce one potential ace in Grayson Rodriguez, but he's out too. To state the obvious that everyone else has stated, they really needed to go all-in for a stud SP, either via free agency or trade a couple of their many hitting prospects that remain endlessly blocked. Maybe they will make a move before the deadline, we'll see.
Anyway, that's a long-winded way of saying they currently field a rotation of back-end SP's that scare no one. So hey, how about we fade one of them and look at Guardians hitter props?
Dean Kremer takes the mound today, and he's off to a rough 8.61 ERA, 1.67 WHIP start after three outings. Now he has not been quite THAT bad as he has a SIERA of 4.22. Still, at his best he pitches to contact as he carries just a 15.9% K% this year and 20.3% in his career. Opponents have a sky-high Contact% of 84.3%, 10th worst in MLB for SP's with at least 10 IP this year.
So let's attack this with a guy that makes a boatload of contact, Steven Kwan. The Guardians OF has a career SwStr% of 3.3% and K% of 9.9% He's batting .333 on the season, with 21 hits in 16 games, to go with 13 runs and 11 RBI's. He bats leadoff, so there's a very good chance he gets at least 5 PA's.
MLB Best Bet: Steven Kwan O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI's, (-130, DraftKings)
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Giants vs. Phillies
We have two teams off to nice starts here as the surprising 12-5 Giants take on the 10-7 Phillies. Aaron Nola gets the ball for Philly, and has gotten off to somewhat of a choppy start this season, which makes perfect sense since its a year that ends in an odd number. Seriously. Starting with 2018, his even year ERA's are 2.37, 3.28. 3.25, and 3.57. Meanwhile back to 2019, he has odd year ERA's of 3.87, 4.63 and 4.46. Through 3 starts and 16.1 innings this season he has a 5.51 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. I really doubt there is anything to this other than strange luck, as estimators like xERA and SIERA don't show nearly these bumps. But hey, who am I to argue karma?
I'm going to fade Nola with the same prop on a similar type hitter as Kwan. Jung Hoo Lee of the Giants only has 228 career plate appearances to his name in MLB, but carries just an 11% K% and 5% SwStr%. He's on absolute fire early on this season, slashing .333/.400/.651 with a 9.8% Barrel%. Lee has 21 hits, 17 runs and 12 RBI in 16 games, so he's just blowing through the prop I like on Kwan, and in fact has surpassed it 11 times already.
He's actually priced cheaper, though that's thanks both to Nola being a much better pitcher than Kremer and Lee batting 3rd so there's a modestly lower chance he gets fewer PA's. Still, let's roll here
MLB Best Bet: Jung Hoo Lee O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI's, (-120, DraftKings)
MLB Picks Recap
- Steven Kwan O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI's, (-130, DraftKings)
- Jung Hoo Lee O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI's, (-120, DraftKings)
