If you're reading this college hoops DFS preview at this point in the season, you likely don't need a reminder -- but guess what, it's March! These are sacred times for college hoops fans, and we've got a 10-game main slate at DraftKings to get us going, with a bit of a reduced $12,000 total prize pool in the main slate with $3,000 to first place. It's a lengthy one, tipping at a slightly earlier 6:30 p.m. EST with games stretching all the way to 11:00.
College Basketball DFS Picks for Tuesday, March 3
This is going to be a high-scoring slate. No games have totals under 140, and only two are under 150 points. Alabama - Georgia (178.5) and Oklahoma State - UCF (168.5) are the slate's highest totals, though the latter has a near double-digit spread and could be less competitive. Only one player (BYU's A.J. Dybansta - $10,800) is priced in five-figures. The six highest-priced players are all forwards, so it seems likely we'll be paying for at least one frontcourt option, and the slate's highest-priced guard (Mikel Brown) won't play due to injury.
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College Basketball DFS Top Players
Flory Bidunga, F, Kansas ($8,400)
With a lot of top options priced above him, paired with some really awful game logs of late, perhaps we'll get a low-rostered play with massive upside in Bidunga. He's had a pathetic 9.4 percent usage rate over the last two, which does seem to coincide with Darryn Peterson's ($7,600) sudden ability to play 30+ minutes. For the record, Peterson is absolutely in play if you want to take the risk. But I'll go to one of my more favored and hopefully under-looked trends; offensive rebounding. In five games prior to this current funk, Bidunga averaged 4.4 offensive boards and you assume that leads to eight put-back points. Arizona State ranks ranks 318th, allowing offensive boards at a 34.1 percent clip.
Ryan Conwell, G, Louisville ($7,700)
This feels a touch too obvious, but with the sliding price due to some inconsistent game logs of late, Conwell is a nice upside play at a fair number. He missed one game when Brown was out previously, but in seven outings, he amassed a massive 33.4 percent usage rate, averaging 20.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.7 steals. Louisville has an expected point total of 85.5 points, and the Orange have allowed at least 77 points in five straight.
Check out RotoWire's college basketball starting lineup data to view recent stats, usage trends and identify potential DFS value plays.
Middle Tier
Jordan Burks, F, UCF ($6,400)
So, about that intro where we have to pay up for an elite forward... maybe not so much, and fading them in favor of some cheaper elite guards could be a nice contrarian lineup construction. This is the second-most obvious game to ensure you get pieces in, and Burks is the fourth-cheapest Knight available. He's a lock for 30 minutes and his team should flirt with 90 points. His peripheral stats leave some to be desired, so the upside is game script-dependent. But Burks has taken double-digit shots in four straight and six of seven, so the floor should be decent enough for a fair return. That Jamichael Stillwell is uncertain to play only boosts potential.
Skyy Clark, G, UCLA ($5,600)
Why not mix in a late-night hammer into roster builds? Clark is an elite talent that's been priced as high as $7,700, and we're getting a nice price break in just his fifth game back from injury. It's simply time to buy on the upside. Clark played 21.8 minutes on average in his first four games back, but spiked with 33 over the weekend, leading to 32.25 DKP. It's far from an elite matchup; Nebraska is fifth in defensive efficiency and 214th in tempo, per KenPom. But it's a fair price we can use to sneak back into winning positions after hours.
Derrion Reid, F, Oklahoma ($5,200)
It may be easy to be drawn in on Mohamed Wague's ($6,000) recent three-game upside stretch, but there's a dangerously low floor at that price point. Reid seems like the opposite; he hasn't topped 22.75 DKP in any of his last 11 games, but we can live with that at a sub-$6,000 price. He should flirt with 30 minutes, and the Sooners come with an implied total of 78.0 points, so the 3.5x floor should again present itself.
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College Basketball DFS Value Plays
Isaac McKneely, G, Louisville ($4,500)
I don't think I really want to stack McKneely and Conwell, but with the Cardinals having an 85.5 point expectancy, it's not out of the realm of possibilities. McKneely is absolutely in a funk; he's not seeing much volume, and he's not knocking down the limited shots he's getting. Exit Brown, enter a defense that's 196th against the 3-point line (34.2 percent allowed) and pair that with a clear starter, 25+ minutes and a massively reduced price, and there's optimism for a bounce-back showing.
Kareem Stagg, F, Georgia ($4,800)
London Jemison, F, Alabama ($4,000)
We know we want shares of this game, and it's not overly high-priced to where stacking it is viable. It's highly likely you'll want more upper tier options in this shootout. But as cheap punt plays in the desirable matchup, they'll both bring more potential than usual. Jemison has started six straight, four times reaching at least a 3x return. The problem is in the other two games, he's tallied 3.25 DKP total! You'd think game script suggests this one goes better. Stagg has started five straight, and the floor seems higher, as he's provided at least eight DKP in this starting stretch, twice hitting at least 19.5 DKP. I prefer Jemison just for the additional price break, but either can be the last piece you put into a lineup, and the decision comes down to available budget.
