Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: BMW Championship

BMW Championship 

Caves Valley Golf Club
Owings Mills, MD

The PGA Tour heads to Owings Mills for another edition of the BMW Championship.

Tommy Fleetwood was again the main storyline heading into this past Sunday and again it didn't work out. We've seen this before though, a guy who come close many times only to fail in the end, often in brand new ways each time, but this is getting out of hand.  

On the one hand, things seem to be getting more difficult as every time he's near the lead now, Fleetwood's inability to close becomes the main story. On the other hand, his inability to win, even when entering the final round with the lead, might be starting to take some pressure off because fewer and fewer people believe he's actually going to win at this point. It's kind of like Rory McIlroy at the Masters. His inability to win the Green Jacket was an issue for a long time until just about everyone gave up on the hope of winning the career grand slam, and then he just goes out and does it.

Okay, so it's not quite the same, McIlroy was still winning events along the way, but his inability to win the Masters or any major for that matter, was a growing problem. A problem that is, until it grew as big as it could, then maybe it leveled off? I don't know how that works, but it seems like there comes a point when a problem can't grow any longer. It's still something you have to deal with, but it's done getting any bigger. Maybe that's where we're at with Fleetwood right now. This thing is getting out of hand and maybe this is as bad as it gets?

As for the guy who won, Justin Rose, well, what can you say? It's been quite a year, from nearly spoiling McIlroy's Masters to winning a signature event, all at the age of 45, it's really something else. In a year where the old guys have not shown up all that often, Rose has really brought his best.

And then there's Scottie Scheffler, who finished in the top-5 and yet it felt like a failure. He's a machine and anything less than a win seems like a letdown. He's truly amazing at this game. I'd be shocked if he doesn't win one of the final two events.

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As for this week, only one year of course history to look at, 2021. 

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LAST YEAR

Keegan Bradley shot a final round 72 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Ludvig Aberg and Sam Burns.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (+220) 

I mentioned it earlier, I'd be shocked if he doesn't win at least one of the final two events and considering the field is only going to get smaller next week, this might be your last chance to get odds this "good". To make matters more interesting, Scheffler finished in a tie for second when this event was played here in 2021. There's nothing to dislike here except the odds, which as I just mentioned are only going to drop in value. He'll be in a mix on Sunday, there's no doubt about that, it's just a matter of whether he wins or finishes with a top-5.

Rory McIlroy (8-1)

It's quite the feat that anyone other than Scheffler is less than 10-1 this week, no one could pull that off this past week, but McIlroy is a different beast than the rest of the field. Not only does he have the game to challenge Scheffler, but he's also quite popular with the betting public, so his odds have always come with a discount. As for his chances this week, well, he's in the mix, his game fell off a cliff after his Masters win, but he's fought his way back and his track record here is good, he posted a top-10 in 2021, but I'm afraid the value isn't quite there. I'll take a longer look at McIlroy next week.    

Xander Schauffele (18-1), Tommy Fleetwood (20-1) and Ludvig Aberg (22-1)

I listed all three guys here close to 20-1 this week because I don't really like any of them to win. Fleetwood is playing the best, but in case you skipped the opening, he's got some issues closing. Schauffele is here because of his past accomplishments and not his current form and Aberg, well Aberg looks to be heading in the right direction at least, but I don't think he's going to post a win this week. All three are capable of winning this week, but I'd rather go further down the odds chart to find better value.

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Patrick Cantlay (25-1)   

Cantlay might be rounding into form at just the right time. At the right time in this case means for the Ryder Cup selection process, but it could also mean for the FedEx. It's hard to tell where the main motivation comes from for some of these guys, but I suspect that Cantlay would like to make the Ryder Cup team and if he plays like he did this past week, this week, then he'll likely be on the squad. Cantlay posted a top-10 this past week at the St. Jude and now he's returning to a site where he won in 2021. Everything is lined up for a strong week from Cantlay.

Cameron Young (30-1)

After breaking his own winless drought on the PGA Tour a couple weeks ago, Young had every right to celebrate and forget about the task at hand this past week, but that's not what happened at all. Young is still focused on making the Ryder Cup team this season and his top-5 this past week at the St. Jude will go a long way to securing a spot. Can he keep it going through this week? I don't see any reason why he slows down this week. He's got the talent to compete with anyone out here, so why not start making some waves?

J.J. Spaun (30-1)

Speaking of making waves, Spaun is simply not afraid, which can't be said about everyone on the PGA Tour. It doesn't matter the stage or the level of competition, if Spaun is on his game, he's going to make a run, this guy is fearless. He nearly won this past week and although he came up short, he did get the better of Scheffler, which is something that not many can say. As a bonus, he played in this event in 2021 as well and although he could only manage a top-25, the experience should help him this week.   

Looking to place a bet for this week's PGA Tour event? Check out the best golf betting sites, featuring comprehensive sportsbook reviews and a summary of new customer bonus offers.

LONG SHOTS

Justin Rose (45-1)         

Yep, back-to-back for a 45-year-old is highly unlikely, but winning multiple events during the playoffs is not unprecedented. In fact, there was a time when it was quite common and while it's unlikely that Rose can pull it off, you have to like the fact that he was able to stare down Scheffler this past week and his good buddy Fleetwood and come out on top. Rose did not play here in 2021, which could be bad, but the fact remains that he's on a roll right now, with a lot of momentum, so who knows?         

Akshay Bhatia (55-1)    

Bhatia got off to a great start this past week at the St. Jude, and while he didn't play terribly down the stretch, he just couldn't find that extra gear to put himself in contention on Sunday. Bhatia opened with a 62 this past week, but hovered around par for the remainder the week and watched as a handful of golfers passed him by. If he finds that opening-round form again this week, he might be able to hang on a bit longer and challenge on Sunday.   

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Cameron Young – As I go down the odds chart, it seems like everyone above Young has probably been used by most, if not all the OAD teams by this point in the season, so Young is kind of a default pick. Don't get me wrong, I like Young this week, but when you've got a field of all the best players on the PGA Tour, it's a bit of a letdown having to take Young, but like I said, the pickings are slim at this point. Young should fare well this week, but he's likely to be quite popular as most OAD teams have used all the big guys.        

Moderately-Chosen Pick: J.J. Spaun –As of this past week, I'm sure there were plenty of OAD players still unsure about using Spaun in a big spot, but after this past week, there shouldn't be anymore hesitation. In fact, Spaun might be the most popular play this week if Young has already been used by the masses. If not, this might be a spot to gain some ground on the competition. Just make sure you've got someone for next week as the field shrinks to 30 golfers. 

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Justin Rose – Rose is a longshot again this week for a couple reasons. The first is that he's 45 and his game, in general, is not what it once was. The second is that it's extremely rare for a golfer to win in consecutive weeks on the PGA Tour. Both are reasons why Rose should be lightly used this week, but if he remains hot, there is an opportunity for you to gain ground in the standings this week. I think the fact that this is a Ryder Cup year will keep Rose sharp, so even if he doesn't win this week, he should find a way to play well.       

Buyer Beware: Keegan Bradley – Bradley really needs a good showing this week to ensure his spot as a player on the Ryder Cup team, but I think that will work against him as this all just seems to be too much for him right now. I can't blame him, he's in a tough spot, trying to manage being the captain and wondering if he'll put himself in a spot to potentially choose himself as a Captain's pick. Oh, and while all of that is going on, just go out there and try to beat the best golfers in the world. I'm firmly in the camp that believes he should be playing in the Ryder Cup this year, but it's not that simple, at least from his perspective and right now, all of that is weighing on his mind and affecting his game.  

My Pick: J.J. Spaun – I hate to take someone that I think is going to be quite popular this week, but at this point in the season, where I don't have that many options left, I have to go with the guy who I think will play the best and that's Spaun. Spaun has had success on the PGA Tour before, he's been at this a long time, but he's never reached this level before. What looked like a potential fluke at the U.S. Open has turned into something else entirely. He's not afraid to battle the best in the game and that alone puts him a notch above many of his peers on the PGA Tour.   

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Scottie Scheffler ($13,100)
Middle Range: Justin Rose ($9,200)
Lower Range: Kurt Kitayama ($8,400)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

No Cut This Week