Ryder Cup
Bethpage Black
Farmingdale, NY
The best golfers in the United States and Europe have traveled to New York for the 45th Ryder Cup.
It's the biennial battle to settle who has the best golfers in the world, the USA or Europe. We've settled in a bit from all the LIV distraction of two years ago and now it's all about the best players. The Europeans enter with nearly the identical squad from two years ago while the Americans have a lot of new faces. Which team will prevail?
Once again, with most fantasy formats passing on this event, I'm going to switch to an odds-based approach this week. Dig into all the details below.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Tuesday.
Ryder Cup 2025 Odds and Picks
Winner
- Europe: +170
- USA: -155
- Tie +1000
To Lift The Trophy
- USA -152
- Europe +124
My first observation is that the odds lean heavily towards the USA this week and this is likely due to the betting public. The odds listed above are via FanDuel Sportsbook, which is based in the United States, so obviously most users are from the USA and will likely side with the home team. This week they're likely to see more casual betters than normal as well, and guess who they are likely to side with?
When the Ryder Cup was held in Europe in 2023, the Europeans were even money to win. They had home soil, which has always been a huge advantage, with at least an equal team on paper, and yet, they were only even money to win. It gives you an idea of how skewed the odds are in favor of the USA team when it comes to the Ryder Cup.
Before we dive into the teams, I should note that the difference in odds between winning and lifting the trophy is that Europe, as the previous winner, needs only 14 points to win this week, while the USA needs 14.5 points. With that in mind, if you're taking the USA, you'll want the "lift the trophy" odds as they are slightly better for some reason.
Let's take a look at this from the 30,000 foot view. Europe is the defending champ and as mentioned, they need just half (14) of the total points to retain the cup. Winning on foreign soil has proved difficult for the Europeans, but they have pulled it off a couple times in the past 20 years. That doesn't sound like a lot, but when you factor in they've only played on U.S. soil five times in the past 20 years, it looks much more impressive. The USA hasn't won on European soil since 1993, and while that's not in play this week because we're in New York, it does go to show how the Euro's seem to have a slight advantage in this format, all things being equal.
We've established that home soil matters, so let's take a look at the rosters. As mentioned earlier, the Europeans are bringing back nearly the entire team from 2023, which won by five points, so they certainly should have the confidence edge. Granted, the competition will look much different, but I doubt that matters to this bunch. Rory McIlroy has long stated that winning on foreign soil has always been the goal, and he gets another shot at that this week.
For decades the the US team was always thought to have more talent, yet somehow would lose its fare share of Ryder Cups, but in recent years, the talent gap has shrunk and even maybe flipped to the European side, so not only do they have the better team dynamic, they also have as much talent if not more than the US team. This year is no exception with McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm among the best players in the world.
On the US side we have a lot of new faces and some familiar ones. Some of the familiar ones are Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas. Bryson DeChambeau is back in the mix this year, which should help the cause, and hometown kid Cameron Young should bring some fresh energy to the mix. Gone are Ryder Cup veterans Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka. Ben Griffin and J.J. Spaun will be making their Ryder Cup debuts.
The question for the USA is, will this team gel? It sounds a bit strange, golf, for the most part is a solo sport and even though there is a team aspect here, with the exception of foursomes on Friday and Saturday, these guys are still playing their own ball, but there is something to be said for wanting to win for your teammates and being able to handle the pressure of others counting on you to play well. We know this particular European team is capable of playing well under this pressure, we can't say the same for the US team.
Home soil is going to play a big role this week at Bethpage, but the value is clearly with the European team this week. There's no clear edge for the U.S. team and it should be no more than even money to win this week. The fact that you can get plus money on Europe is crazy in my mind. The home team has a proven edge in this contest, but we don't have to go too far back to see that edge as meaningless, especially in the states. The start is the key of course. A good start by the Americans will provide enough to get them to Sunday in good shape, while a poor start could lead to a disaster if they aren't careful. The Europeans have played together before, they know about ups and downs, they can weather a poor start, but this American team has a lot of new parts and quite frankly, some of the old parts haven't meshed well together in the past. I can see a scenario where the Americans start poorly and the wheels come off. I can't see that from the other side. A more likely scenario is that the USA rides a wave of early momentum on Friday, but cracks start to appear on Saturday at some point. Europe enters Sunday with a lead and simply holds on to lift the trophy again.
Top Point Scorer
Opportunity is a big factor when it comes to earning points in the Ryder Cup, and there are a few guys that simply won't get the chance to earn more than a couple points. The golfers with the best chance to be the top point scorer are:
Scottie Scheffler +500
It isn't a true golf odds chart unless Scheffler is at the top and even though I think the Europeans will lift the trophy, I can argue with this play. The only issue for Scheffler of course is that he'll be heavily reliant on a partner for at least two of the five sessions.
Rory McIlroy +900
A lot of value here. McIlroy is going to likely play in all five matches, giving him an opportunity to earn a lot of points. He might have to get a point or two off of Scheffler however, which is going to be tough.
Jon Rahm +900
It's a little odd to have two of the top-3 individuals from the underdog side, but it looks like the odds makers see the Euro's as a bit top heavy, though I might argue it's the Americans that are top heavy. Anyhow, it's interesting to note that Rahm was held out of the afternoon Four-ball matches on Saturday in 2023 and we have the same captain this year, so perhaps that's the plan again this year?
Bryson DeChambeau +1000
DeChambeau is certainly a wild card this week. He's likely to start the action on Friday to help get the crowd in a frenzy, but after that, who knows? In his two previous Ryder Cups, DeChambeau has only played half of the matches on Friday/Saturday. He's a better player now than he was the last time he played in a Ryder Cup, but perhaps his game does not mesh well in the team format? I'm not sure, but whatever the case, if he's not playing 3/4 team matches, then he's got no chance to win most points.
Russell Henley +1100
At first glance, this seems like a mistake. Henley is a good player, but certainly there are better players in the field, right? Well, yes, but again, this is all about opportunity and it's expected that Henley will be paired with Scheffler on Friday/Saturday, which would obviously give him a better chance to earn points. The problem of course is that how is he going to earn more points than Scheffler if he's playing with him? Throw in that Henley might not play all four team matches and it will be even more difficult to get on top of Scheffler.
Xander Schauffele +1100
Schauffele is certainly capable of scooping up a lot of points this week, but honestly, I'm a little worried about the state of his game. He never really got back to his best form this season and I wonder how his game will respond to the pressure this week.
Patrick Cantlay +1300
Cantlay is likely to be paired with Schauffele this week and if Schauffele isn't on top of his game, then it's going to be tough for Cantlay to earn a lot of points.
Tommy Fleetwood +1300
Fleetwood might be a victim of playing time this week. in 2023, he was passed over in the foursomes on Friday afternoon and when he got a chance to play in that format on Saturday, he lost his match. That leaves him with a max of three matches on Friday/Saturday, two of which will be with McIlroy, so I don't see how he can get past Rory.
Cameron Young +1400
I was surprised to see Young listed this high as a first-timer, but he is the hometown kid who knows this course better than anyone in the field, so who knows. The only way this works however is if he plays and wins his first match and then just carries that momentum through the weekend. Unlike others in this range though, he doesn't appear to be blocked by a potential teammate, so if you're looking for some really good value this week, Young might be your guy.
The Field
The rest of the players are at +2000 or higher and the reason is opportunity or lack thereof. There are some tantalizing names out there, especially Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland for the Europeans. but as we've seen already with Luke Donald, he wants to mix things up starting on Friday, so there's only a small group of players that will likely get a shot to play all four team matches.
As for the Americans, we don't know what strategy Keegan Bradley will employ, but something tells me he's going to stick with the hot hand to keep the crowd fully engaged, at least, that would be the smart strategy anyway. This would give a guy like Justin Thomas a chance to earn a lot of points, but the key is, he has to play in the morning matches on Friday and he has to win. In addition to that scenario, he needs Bradley to deploy him again in the afternoon. That goes for any long shot from the American side, a lot of things have to fall into place, some of which are outside of the player's control.
Ryder Cup 2025 Strategy
If you're playing the chalk, I prefer McIlroy over Scheffler because I think Europe wins this week and there's more value with Rory. If you're playing a long shot, I'd lean towards Young, who has a better path to more points than a lot of guys in that range and will likely be a pivotal player if the U.S. is to win.
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