NCAA Hockey Weekend Best Bets: Big Ten, NCHC Picks & Tournament Implications
Most conference tournaments start next weekend, although the Big Ten has another week of regular-season action. We're seeing the NPI shape the tournament field, but there are still about six teams that need to lock up their spots in the dance. Teams will be leaving everything on the line, so let's take a look at some of the best bets of the weekend.
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No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. Minnesota Gophers
The Gophers have won just two of their last 14 games, and they were swept at home by Michigan in that stretch. They scored more than two goals in just four of those games, so even Luca Di Pasquo's solid goaltending – he has a .913 save percentage – hasn't been able to salvage this drought. There isn't a ton of value here, even betting the puck line, but having Jack Ivankovic back in net provides some level of safety. The under looks like a fantastic value, as both of their earlier two meetings hit.
Michigan -1.5 (-140 DraftKings)
Michigan Under 6.5 Goals (+110 DraftKings)
Parlay: Michigan -1.5 + U6.5 (+254 DraftKings)
No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Penn State bounced back from a four-game losing streak to sweep Ohio State last weekend, scoring 16 goals and allowing eight in the process. In eight of Penn State's last nine games, the total has gone over eight goals, and with Gavin McKenna red-hot, they should be able to score with impunity against the Fighting Irish, who have given up 4.1 goals per game – the second-most in the nation. I'm expecting the Nittany Lions to run up the score in both of these games.
Penn State -1.5 (-145 DraftKings)
Penn State Over 6.5 Goals (-145 DraftKings)
Parlay: PSU -1.5 + O6.5 (+164 DraftKings)
No. 14 UConn Huskies vs. No. 19 UMass Minutemen
The Minutemen are getting hot at the right time with wins in nine of their last 11 games. They averaged a modest 3.0 goals per game in that stretch, but they received outstanding goaltending from Michael Hrabal, who allowed just 1.36 goals per game in that stretch. Meanwhile, UConn has scored 3.2 goals per game (19th), and they're also being buoyed by strong goaltending from Tyler Muszelik, who has generated a .932 save percentage and a 2.08 GAA through 27 games. While UConn is overall a better scoring offense, the disparity of these two teams comes down to goaltending, making us lean towards UMass here.
UMass ML (+135 DraftKings)
Under 5.5 Goals (-115 DraftKings)
No. 4 Western Michigan Broncos vs. No. 3 North Dakota Fighting Hawks
This is the game of the week with two top-5 teams squaring off with seeding in the NCHC tournament on the line. The Broncos need a clean sweep to have a chance at the top spot in the NCHC tournament. Both teams have averaged 3.8 goals per game (fourth) with a 2.3 GAA (seventh), and they're both top-10 in Corsi For percentage, measuring high-percentage chances. Both teams have stellar goaltending thus far, and while the Broncos will have home-ice advantage, this game is evenly matched at every level of the ice. Thus, we're rolling with the underdog here, and we're going to hop on the under with both teams tightening up their defenses in the familiar conference clash.
North Dakota ML (+114 DraftKings)
Under 6.5 Goals (+105 DraftKings)
No. 12 Boston College Eagles at Boston University Terriers
These two teams have already met twice this year – once in the Beanpot – with the Eagles taking both matchups, outscoring the Terriers by a margin of 10-3. Despite an overload of talent, the Terriers have struggled to score this season with just 2.8 goals per game (35th), and they sit 29th with a 51.5 Corsi For percentage. They're essentially eliminated from the tournament unless they win the Hockey East tournament. Meanwhile, the Eagles have won eight of the last 10 games while averaging 3.7 goals per game in that stretch. Freshman goaltender Louka Cloutier has looked fantastic with a 2.00 GAA in that stretch, giving this unit an excellent chance to maintain its tournament position. We're rolling with BC to complete the season sweep here.
Boston College -1.5 (+154 DraftKings)
Under 6.5 Goals (-120 DraftKings)
