This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
French Open Quarterfinals: Upsets & Locks to Watch
The quarterfinals of the French Open begin Tuesday from the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. There will be no shortage of star power in action Tuesday, and one of the biggest names in the sport could face a tough challenge from a player that defeated them in the lead-up to Roland Garros.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, while the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites.
French Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Qinwen Zheng (+220) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Zheng has the best chance out of Tuesday's underdogs to keep the favorites from sweeping. Her 1-6 record against Sabalenka doesn't inspire much confidence on its face, but the lone victory came just three weeks ago, when Zheng defeated Sabalenka in the quarterfinals of Rome on clay, 6-4, 6-3. Zheng also has a 10-match winning streak at Roland Garros, having won the Olympic gold medal here last year. Sabalenka's a great all-court player but is a bit more vulnerable on clay compared to other surfaces. The French Open is the only Grand Slam at which Sabalenka hasn't reached the semifinals or better multiple times, peaking as a semifinalist in 2023. Zheng is one of the few players on the WTA Tour capable of going blow for blow with Sabalenka from the baseline for stretches, though it will still be in Zheng's interest to mix up paces and spins to keep Sabalenka from building a rhythm.
French Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Iga Swiatek (-350) vs. Elina Svitolina
Swiatek hasn't quite seemed herself for much of the clay season, but the four-time French Open winner showed the heart of a champion to battle back from 6-1, 2-0 down to claim a 1-6, 6-3, 7-5 win over Elena Rybakina in the Round of 16. Rybakina used her power to take the match to Swiatek and kept the Pole uncomfortable for the vast majority of that clash, but Svitolina's going to have a hard time replicating that success since the Ukrainian relies on multi-shot combinations to win rallies. Swiatek should be able to build a rhythm in this match and play off her front foot, and she's nearly unstoppable on this surface when that happens. Svitolina upset Swiatek at Wimbledon in 2023, but Iga is far from the same player on grass. All three of their other meetings have gone Swiatek's way in straight sets, including one clay-court matchup.
Carlos Alcaraz (-1200) vs. Tommy Paul
Paul has played Alcaraz close before, but the 12th-seeded American faces a nearly insurmountable challenge in best-of-five set tennis against Alcaraz on clay. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 4-2, but their only clay-court meeting went to the Spaniard in straight sets. It was also their most recent matchup, coming at this very venue at the Olympics last year. Alcaraz has had occasional slips in form on hard courts over the past year, but those haven't been present on clay, where he's 19-1 in 2025.
Honorable Mention
Lorenzo Musetti (-450) vs. Frances Tiafoe
