Farm Futures: Breakout Rookie Level Hitters

Leo De Vries (SD) is already at High-A, while Jesus Made (MIL) and Luis Pena (MIL) were aggressively assigned to Single-A this season, but their peers from the 2024 international signing class begin play in the Arizona and Florida complex leagues Saturday, May 3. There are also a handful of 2024 high school draftees who are being eased into things in rookie ball, while many of their peers began the year at Single-A. We also have the next wave of exciting teenage hitters from the Jan. 15, 2025 international signing class beginning their pro careers in the Dominican Summer League in June.

I can't get in-person or video looks at what's happening on the backfields in the spring or in fall instructs, so I have to rely on the reporting from places like Baseball America and FanGraphs for information on these players beyond what they put up in official DSL games last season. While we know we're working with minimal accurate intel on these players, we also know that every summer, a dozen or more prospects shoot up rankings based on what they do in the ACL, FCL and DSL. 

As in past years, what I've tried to do here is give you my personal watch lists for each of these leagues, plus some rookie-level pitchers worth paying attention to. I've also noted the strengths and weaknesses for each of these players (+ is good, - is bad, blank is N/A or neutral). While we may have an OK idea of a player's tools and skill at this stage, the scouting reports on 17- and 18-year-old hitters can evolve rapidly and drastically, as every few weeks represents a large percentage of their pro samples. 

Trying to jump on breakout rookie-level hitters is always a popular dynasty-league tactic this time of year, and my hope with this article is to provide you a sense of what each of these prospects brings to the table. There will be guys who break out and are not listed in this article, but that doesn't mean that they aren't legitimate prospects -- I wanted to narrow the focus here somewhat. Let me know which rookie-level hitters you're most excited to track this summer in the comments, on Twitter, Bluesky or on Discord.

For those interested, I previewed the rookie leagues with Chris Welsh on this week's Prospect Podcast:

Arizona Complex League

Yolfran Castillo (TEX) has already started to fill out what was initially a very lanky 6-foot-3 frame when he signed. I'm expecting him to show some power gains this year while earning a bump to Single-A. JD Dix (ARI) could also quickly force a promotion to Single-A, as he profiles as the most advanced position player in the league from the 2024 draft. Emil Morales (LAD) and Kale Fountain (SD) represent a pair of slugging third basemen who will look to show that their hit tools are up to this age-appropriate test. Fountain had Tommy John surgery in the fall but has been playing in games in extended spring training and should be ready for the ACL season. Chase Harlan (LAD) is rehabbing hip surgery and it's unclear if he'll be ready to play in the complex league. Paulino Santana (TEX) came into 2024 with huge expectations, and he would have lived up to them if he'd hit for any over-the-fence power in the DSL. If Santana were to show a five-category skill set early in the ACL, he could be a big riser on the late-May update to the top 400 prospect rankings. Players of Tyson Lewis' (CIN) caliber typically get assigned to Single-A, so while the Reds have a lot of shortstops in the system who need reps, the expectation should be for Lewis to look like he's too good for this level early on. Brendan Tunink (LAD) isn't supposed to have a passable hit tool, but if he's making enough contact early on, his combination of plus speed and plus power potential would make him an exciting pickup in deeper leagues.

Florida Complex League

Shortstop Yairo Padilla (STL) is the top prospect who will begin the year in a rookie league, thanks to his across-the-board skill set and projectable frame. If we forget about speed and defense, Padilla's teammate Rainiel Rodriguez (STL) might be the best prospect in complex ball, as he has a chance to develop plus or better power with a plus or better hit tool. Luke Dickerson (WAS) played hockey in high school in the Northeast and obviously wasn't deemed ready for a full-season assignment. If he hits well in complex ball, Dickerson will probably get a quick promotion to Single-A, but there's no real excuse for any seven-figure prep hitter to struggle against complex-league pitching. Elvin Garcia (BAL), Luis Cova (MIA) and Hayden Alvarez (LAA) have a chance to be big risers if they start tapping into more of their raw power. In a league lacking in bankable pure hitters, Justin Gonzales (BOS) has a chance to stand out after a dominant statistical showing in the DSL. This league is filled with toolsy players with hit tool concerns, so look for a strikeout rate below 25 percent if you spot a potential breakout. Yovanny Rodriguez (NYM) is on the 60-day IL with an undisclosed injury, so it's not clear if he'll play this year.

Dominican Summer League

If you want to read up on these players, check out Ben Badler's work at BA. Covering DSL prospects before they play in official games is an impossible job, and Ben is the best in the business. Age appropriate for the DSL is 17 years old. If a player is older than 17 and making their pro debut in the DSL, there could be a good reason, like a visa issue, for them not being stateside, but it's a big red flag if an 18- or 19-year-old hitter is repeating the DSL. For pedigree, I'm basically judging based on signing bonus, but at this point it should be clear that signing bonuses aren't an accurate gauge of talent, as most bonuses are agreed to a couple years before the player makes their pro debut. Jesus Made (MIL) was included here last year, but we knew very little about him. Made got a + for age/level, pedigree and power, but the fact he didn't get a + for speed or body speaks to the lack of intel we have at this stage. In fact, I gave a slight bump to the top two Brewers signees this year (Brailyn Antunez, Kenny Fenelon) due to the fact they've clearly had the most recent high-end success on the international market. Shotaro Morii (ATH), a two-way prospect from Japan, has been overhyped by MLB due to the fact they can link him to Shohei Ohtani. He doesn't project to have any fantasy-relevant plus tools as a position player, although he could be solid across the board, and if he scraps hitting, then he's even less exciting because he'd be a pitcher who is four-plus years from the majors.

Pitchers Worth Tracking

ACL

Joey Oakie - CLE

David Shields - KC

Humberto Cruz - SD

Sheng-En Lin - CIN

Chase Mobley - CLE

Trey Gregory-Alford - LAA

Yander Maria - CHC

Orlando Suarez - CHW

Tyler Renz - MIL

Jayden Dubanewicz - MIL

Dioris De La Rosa - LAA

Oliver Gonzalez - LAD

Dylan Jordan - LAA

Ubaldo Soto - LAA

Argenis Cayama - SF

Sandy Ozuna - COL

Gregory Sanchez - COL

FCL

Levi Sterling - PIT

Conrad Cason - BOS

Dalvinson Reyes - BOS

Jose Paulino - MIA

Esteban Mejia - BAL

Grant Shepardson - MIA

Carson Messina - TOR

Johnny King - TOR

Ethan Schiefelbein - DET

Branneli Franco - STL

Ronaldys Jimenez - PIT

DSL

Sadbiel Delzine - BOS

Raudy Reyes - ATL

Carlos Alvarez - SD

Rostering pitchers in rookie ball is not something I'd advise in most dynasty leagues, but these pitchers have enough upside to justify at least keeping tabs on how they're performing. The top pitchers in this group could quickly move to Single-A if they have early success in rookie ball.

See where future major league baseball starts slot into RotoWire's MLB Top Prospects & Rankings for 2025!