Instead of starting with a leaderboard, I'm going to create one for which starting pitcher prospects to target. I got the idea from trying to determine Nolan McLean's possible outcomes this upcoming season. After posting a 2.06 ERA with 1.04 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 in 48 innings last season, he's being drafted as the 27th starting pitcher while his projections point to him being the 53rd-ranked pitcher. I wanted to determine if I should follow the previous results or the projections for pitchers who debuted for a short time and are still ranked as top prospects.
For reference, McLean's Steamer projection is for 163 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.74 ERA and 3.90 xFIP. There is a huge disconnect between those numbers and the results from his small sample last season. Almost a two-point jump in ERA. A difference of over two K/9. His WHIP is up almost 0.30. It's time to start finding some comps.
To collect the sample, found the pitchers who:
- Pitched from 2012 to today. The 2012 season was used because that's how far back I have Steamer projections.
- Threw at least 10 IP in their debut season.
- Made the following winter's Baseball America's top-100 prospects. While Baseball America's list has yet to be published, I have their rankings going back decades.
- Threw at least 10 IP that next season.
In all, 55 arms made the cut (full list at the end of the article). For these arms, I included their Steamer projection. Now
Instead of starting with a leaderboard, I'm going to create one for which starting pitcher prospects to target. I got the idea from trying to determine Nolan McLean's possible outcomes this upcoming season. After posting a 2.06 ERA with 1.04 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 in 48 innings last season, he's being drafted as the 27th starting pitcher while his projections point to him being the 53rd-ranked pitcher. I wanted to determine if I should follow the previous results or the projections for pitchers who debuted for a short time and are still ranked as top prospects.
For reference, McLean's Steamer projection is for 163 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.74 ERA and 3.90 xFIP. There is a huge disconnect between those numbers and the results from his small sample last season. Almost a two-point jump in ERA. A difference of over two K/9. His WHIP is up almost 0.30. It's time to start finding some comps.
To collect the sample, found the pitchers who:
- Pitched from 2012 to today. The 2012 season was used because that's how far back I have Steamer projections.
- Threw at least 10 IP in their debut season.
- Made the following winter's Baseball America's top-100 prospects. While Baseball America's list has yet to be published, I have their rankings going back decades.
- Threw at least 10 IP that next season.
In all, 55 arms made the cut (full list at the end of the article). For these arms, I included their Steamer projection. Now it's time to see if there is a way to spot potential breakouts.
We are dealing with a small sample, so doing splits of splits limits the sample to maybe two or three guys.
To start with, here is how the pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA in their first season performed in their second:
Season 1 ERA | Season 1 WHIP | Projected ERA | Projected WHIP | Season 2 ERA | Season 2 WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 2.32 | 1.06 | 4.17 | 1.34 | 4.13 | 1.30 |
| Median | 2.31 | 1.05 | 4.19 | 1.34 | 4.37 | 1.33 |
These 10 pitched almost exactly as their projections predicted.
McLean's projected ERA is under 4.00, so let's look at the nine guys with a sub-4.00 ERA Steamer projection:
Season 1 ERA | Season 1 WHIP | Projected ERA | Projected WHIP | Season 2 ERA | Season 2 WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 4.32 | 1.30 | 3.71 | 1.26 | 4.50 | 1.34 |
| Median | 4.24 | 1.33 | 3.80 | 1.28 | 4.70 | 1.22 |
That's not ideal, with these pitchers performing way worse than expected.
Four pitchers had a sub-4.00 ERA their first season and a projected ERA under 4.00 for their second season. Here is how they performed:
Season 1 ERA | Season 1 WHIP | Projected ERA | Projected WHIP | Season 2 ERA | Season 2 WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 2.61 | 1.02 | 3.50 | 1.19 | 3.90 | 1.18 |
| Median | 2.31 | 1.08 | 3.63 | 1.21 | 4.05 | 1.26 |
Better but not great.
While not referenced as much as ERA, here is how the top 40 percent (22) of guys in the sample according by their actual and projected WHIP performed.
First, here's how the guys with good actual WHIPs performed:
Season 1 ERA | Season 1 WHIP | Projected ERA | Projected WHIP | Season 2 ERA | Season 2 WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 3.60 | 1.12 | 4.20 | 1.34 | 4.07 | 1.28 |
| Median | 3.69 | 1.20 | 4.25 | 1.34 | 4.23 | 1.27 |
They effectively hit their projections.
And here is how the best projected WHIPs performed:
Season 1 ERA | Season 1 WHIP | Projected ERA | Projected WHIP | Season 2 ERA | Season 2 WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 4.88 | 1.37 | 4.07 | 1.29 | 4.27 | 1.30 |
| Median | 5.22 | 1.40 | 4.12 | 1.31 | 4.45 | 1.25 |
The WHIP projections held up, but those ERAs are far from desirable.
When examining these pitchers, the use of traditional rate stats doesn't help to find breakouts. But one stat did: xFIP.
I examined other factors besides xFIP that were better than actual and projected ERA and WHIP, but xFIP was the best. xFIP combines a pitcher's strikeout, walk, and groundball rate into a single value that is shown on an ERA scale.
Seventeen pitchers threw a sub-4.00 xFIP, and they were the best group by far:
Season 1 ERA | Season 1 WHIP | Season 1 xFIP | Projected ERA | Projected WHIP | Season 2 ERA | Season 2 WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 3.92 | 1.24 | 3.53 | 4.23 | 1.35 | 3.79 | 1.25 |
| Median | 3.60 | 1.23 | 3.56 | 4.22 | 1.32 | 3.58 | 1.25 |
These pitchers outperformed their ERA projection by ~0.50 and WHIP by ~0.10. BREAKOUTS.
So we finally get to this week's leaderboard of the six pitchers who:
- Threw at least 10 IP last season
- Had a sub 4.00 xFIP
- Are ranked in our top-100 prospect list
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | WHIP | xFIP | RW Prospect Ranking | NFBC DC ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connelly Early | 19 | 13.5 | 1.9 | 2.33 | 1.09 | 2.35 | 27 | 206 |
| Nolan McLean | 48 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 2.06 | 1.04 | 2.78 | 13 | 99 |
| Bubba Chandler | 19 | 10.2 | 1.4 | 5.12 | 0.98 | 2.92 | 21 | 151 |
| Trey Yesavage | 14 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 3.21 | 1.43 | 3.23 | 22 | 142 |
| Brandon Sproat | 20 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 4.79 | 1.21 | 3.84 | 72 | 475 |
| Jonah Tong | 18 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 7.71 | 1.77 | 3.96 | 23 | 301 |
The first four names should not be a surprise since they're being drafted in the first 200 picks. The last two struggled in their debut, however. They are going late enough in drafts that it may be worth taking a shot on them.
When looking for top prospects to break out, don't focus on their actual or projected ERA and WHIP, but instead value them based on their major-league xFIP.
| Name | Season 1 | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | xFIP | Season 2 | Proj IP | Proj ERA | Proj WHIP | BA Rank | Actual IP | Actual ERA | Actual WHIP | Actual K/9 | Actual xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | 2013 | 24 | 1.50 | .92 | 7.88 | 3.08 | 2014 | 153 | 4.42 | 1.43 | 99 | 74 | 3.04 | 1.20 | 7.18 | 3.54 |
| Ian Anderson | 2020 | 32 | 1.95 | 1.08 | 11.41 | 3.45 | 2021 | 138 | 4.20 | 1.39 | 8 | 128 | 3.58 | 1.23 | 8.70 | 3.96 |
| Shane Baz | 2021 | 13 | 2.03 | .68 | 12.15 | 2.87 | 2022 | 100 | 3.77 | 1.19 | 8 | 27 | 5.00 | 1.33 | 10.00 | 3.43 |
| Jharel Cotton | 2016 | 29 | 2.15 | .82 | 7.06 | 4.32 | 2017 | 148 | 4.16 | 1.32 | 84 | 129 | 5.58 | 1.44 | 7.33 | 5.38 |
| Steven Matz | 2015 | 35 | 2.27 | 1.23 | 8.58 | 3.56 | 2016 | 158 | 3.59 | 1.23 | 13 | 132 | 3.40 | 1.21 | 8.77 | 3.30 |
| Josh James | 2018 | 23 | 2.35 | .96 | 11.35 | 3.46 | 2019 | 71 | 3.67 | 1.25 | 77 | 61 | 4.70 | 1.32 | 14.67 | 3.77 |
| Wily Peralta | 2012 | 29 | 2.48 | 1.21 | 7.14 | 3.56 | 2013 | 95 | 4.56 | 1.48 | 69 | 183 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 6.33 | 4.13 |
| Tyler Mahle | 2017 | 20 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 6.30 | 5.79 | 2018 | 110 | 4.54 | 1.33 | 90 | 112 | 4.98 | 1.59 | 8.84 | 4.45 |
| Randall Delgado | 2011 | 35 | 2.83 | 1.23 | 4.63 | 4.97 | 2012 | 88 | 4.18 | 1.44 | 46 | 92 | 4.37 | 1.41 | 7.38 | 4.13 |
| Tony Gonsolin | 2019 | 40 | 2.93 | 1.03 | 8.33 | 4.90 | 2020 | 20 | 4.63 | 1.35 | 82 | 46 | 2.31 | 0.84 | 8.87 | 3.80 |
| Triston McKenzie | 2020 | 33 | 3.24 | .90 | 11.34 | 3.60 | 2021 | 141 | 4.61 | 1.32 | 26 | 120 | 4.95 | 1.18 | 10.20 | 4.53 |
| Erik Johnson | 2013 | 27 | 3.25 | 1.55 | 5.86 | 4.73 | 2014 | 163 | 4.93 | 1.45 | 63 | 23 | 6.46 | 1.77 | 6.85 | 5.02 |
| Ryan Pepiot | 2022 | 36 | 3.47 | 1.46 | 10.40 | 5.31 | 2023 | 58 | 4.60 | 1.38 | 55 | 42 | 2.14 | 0.76 | 8.14 | 3.99 |
| Michael Soroka | 2018 | 25 | 3.51 | 1.44 | 7.36 | 3.63 | 2019 | 55 | 4.12 | 1.31 | 25 | 174 | 2.68 | 1.11 | 7.32 | 3.85 |
| Yordano Ventura | 2013 | 15 | 3.52 | 1.24 | 6.46 | 4.30 | 2014 | 134 | 4.08 | 1.36 | 26 | 183 | 3.20 | 1.30 | 7.82 | 3.74 |
| Taijuan Walker | 2013 | 15 | 3.60 | 1.00 | 7.20 | 3.80 | 2014 | 134 | 4.34 | 1.39 | 11 | 38 | 2.61 | 1.29 | 8.05 | 3.88 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 2011 | 34 | 3.63 | 1.38 | 5.97 | 4.80 | 2012 | 82 | 4.28 | 1.49 | 96 | 119 | 4.30 | 1.51 | 5.88 | 4.56 |
| Mason Miller | 2023 | 33 | 3.78 | 1.20 | 10.26 | 4.77 | 2024 | 68 | 2.96 | 1.10 | 45 | 65 | 2.49 | 0.88 | 14.40 | 2.21 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 2013 | 29 | 3.94 | 1.21 | 6.67 | 4.33 | 2014 | 96 | 4.30 | 1.36 | 67 | 168 | 4.13 | 1.28 | 9.32 | 3.90 |
| Touki Toussaint | 2018 | 29 | 4.03 | 1.34 | 9.93 | 4.24 | 2019 | 92 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 53 | 41 | 5.62 | 1.68 | 9.72 | 5.63 |
| Joe Ryan | 2021 | 26 | 4.05 | .79 | 10.13 | 3.73 | 2022 | 147 | 4.35 | 1.24 | 86 | 147 | 3.55 | 1.10 | 9.24 | 4.35 |
| Kyle Harrison | 2023 | 34 | 4.15 | 1.15 | 9.09 | 5.01 | 2024 | 159 | 4.10 | 1.34 | 26 | 124 | 4.56 | 1.34 | 8.54 | 4.23 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 2016 | 23 | 4.24 | 1.50 | 9.26 | 4.57 | 2017 | 108 | 3.86 | 1.40 | 23 | 62 | 7.69 | 2.02 | 8.13 | 5.64 |
| Luis Ortiz | 2022 | 16 | 4.50 | 1.13 | 9.56 | 4.44 | 2023 | 89 | 4.13 | 1.33 | 74 | 86 | 4.78 | 1.70 | 6.13 | 5.38 |
| Chris Archer | 2012 | 29 | 4.60 | 1.23 | 11.05 | 3.42 | 2013 | 86 | 4.62 | 1.49 | 36 | 128 | 3.22 | 1.13 | 7.06 | 3.91 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 2017 | 43 | 4.81 | 1.33 | 6.70 | 4.72 | 2018 | 101 | 4.73 | 1.40 | 61 | 42 | 3.61 | 1.18 | 9.99 | 3.36 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 2016 | 31 | 4.88 | 1.72 | 6.32 | 4.96 | 2017 | 24 | 4.25 | 1.37 | 36 | 99 | 5.89 | 1.47 | 7.43 | 5.11 |
| Reynaldo López | 2016 | 44 | 4.91 | 1.57 | 8.59 | 4.52 | 2017 | 28 | 4.31 | 1.38 | 31 | 47 | 4.72 | 1.32 | 5.66 | 5.75 |
| Luiz Gohara | 2017 | 29 | 4.91 | 1.36 | 9.51 | 4.05 | 2018 | 130 | 3.83 | 1.32 | 23 | 19 | 5.95 | 1.22 | 8.24 | 5.15 |
| Germán Márquez | 2016 | 20 | 5.23 | 1.65 | 6.53 | 3.89 | 2017 | 128 | 4.55 | 1.40 | 53 | 162 | 4.39 | 1.38 | 8.17 | 4.18 |
| Trevor Bauer | 2013 | 17 | 5.29 | 1.82 | 5.82 | 6.60 | 2014 | 77 | 5.11 | 1.58 | 83 | 153 | 4.18 | 1.38 | 8.41 | 4.14 |
| Drew Pomeranz | 2011 | 18 | 5.40 | 1.31 | 6.38 | 3.62 | 2012 | 102 | 4.77 | 1.53 | 30 | 96 | 4.93 | 1.48 | 7.73 | 4.49 |
| Martín Pérez | 2012 | 38 | 5.45 | 1.63 | 5.92 | 4.67 | 2013 | 86 | 5.01 | 1.54 | 81 | 124 | 3.62 | 1.34 | 6.08 | 4.04 |
| Jon Gray | 2015 | 40 | 5.53 | 1.62 | 8.85 | 3.83 | 2016 | 113 | 4.12 | 1.31 | 37 | 168 | 4.61 | 1.26 | 9.91 | 3.61 |
| Tarik Skubal | 2020 | 32 | 5.63 | 1.22 | 10.41 | 4.81 | 2021 | 127 | 4.37 | 1.31 | 20 | 149 | 4.34 | 1.26 | 9.88 | 4.06 |
| Luke Weaver | 2016 | 36 | 5.70 | 1.60 | 11.15 | 3.34 | 2017 | 62 | 4.03 | 1.27 | 50 | 60 | 3.88 | 1.26 | 10.74 | 2.93 |
| Edward Cabrera | 2021 | 26 | 5.81 | 1.63 | 9.57 | 5.14 | 2022 | 66 | 4.06 | 1.33 | 69 | 71 | 3.01 | 1.07 | 9.42 | 4.12 |
| Tyler Skaggs | 2012 | 29 | 5.83 | 1.47 | 6.44 | 5.45 | 2013 | 81 | 4.21 | 1.36 | 12 | 38 | 5.12 | 1.37 | 8.38 | 3.95 |
| Andrew Heaney | 2014 | 29 | 5.83 | 1.33 | 6.14 | 4.18 | 2015 | 55 | 3.94 | 1.28 | 42 | 105 | 3.49 | 1.20 | 6.64 | 4.41 |
| Spencer Howard | 2020 | 24 | 5.92 | 1.64 | 8.51 | 5.03 | 2021 | 96 | 4.42 | 1.34 | 27 | 49 | 7.43 | 1.61 | 9.42 | 4.98 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 2022 | 34 | 5.97 | 1.73 | 7.27 | 4.93 | 2023 | 79 | 4.21 | 1.34 | 79 | 61 | 5.25 | 1.48 | 6.71 | 5.02 |
| Nate Pearson | 2020 | 18 | 6.00 | 1.50 | 8.00 | 6.04 | 2021 | 126 | 4.71 | 1.37 | 14 | 15 | 4.20 | 1.73 | 12.00 | 5.02 |
| Trevor Bauer | 2012 | 16 | 6.06 | 1.65 | 9.37 | 4.75 | 2013 | 79 | 4.28 | 1.41 | 14 | 17 | 5.29 | 1.82 | 5.82 | 6.60 |
| Trevor Rogers | 2020 | 28 | 6.11 | 1.61 | 12.54 | 3.67 | 2021 | 124 | 3.97 | 1.31 | 89 | 133 | 2.64 | 1.15 | 10.62 | 3.54 |
| Jack Flaherty | 2017 | 21 | 6.33 | 1.55 | 8.44 | 4.41 | 2018 | 89 | 4.44 | 1.37 | 53 | 151 | 3.34 | 1.11 | 10.85 | 3.58 |
| Eddie Butler | 2014 | 16 | 6.75 | 1.88 | 1.69 | 5.23 | 2015 | 55 | 4.96 | 1.49 | 77 | 79 | 5.90 | 1.82 | 4.99 | 5.18 |
| Lucas Giolito | 2016 | 21 | 6.75 | 1.78 | 4.64 | 5.82 | 2017 | 54 | 4.99 | 1.51 | 25 | 45 | 2.38 | 0.95 | 6.75 | 4.42 |
| Casey Mize | 2020 | 28 | 6.99 | 1.48 | 8.26 | 5.37 | 2021 | 124 | 5.04 | 1.40 | 28 | 150 | 3.71 | 1.14 | 7.06 | 4.37 |
| Mitch Keller | 2019 | 48 | 7.13 | 1.83 | 12.19 | 3.47 | 2020 | 57 | 4.22 | 1.34 | 52 | 21 | 2.91 | 1.25 | 6.65 | 6.57 |
| Cody Reed | 2016 | 47 | 7.36 | 1.80 | 8.12 | 4.29 | 2017 | 66 | 3.80 | 1.29 | 69 | 17 | 5.09 | 1.70 | 8.66 | 5.57 |
| Reid Detmers | 2021 | 20 | 7.40 | 1.79 | 8.27 | 5.86 | 2022 | 107 | 4.40 | 1.31 | 28 | 129 | 3.77 | 1.21 | 8.51 | 4.20 |
| Jacob Turner | 2011 | 12 | 8.53 | 1.66 | 5.68 | 4.73 | 2012 | 84 | 4.84 | 1.47 | 22 | 55 | 4.42 | 1.20 | 5.89 | 4.34 |
| Allen Webster | 2013 | 30 | 8.60 | 1.81 | 6.82 | 5.18 | 2014 | 19 | 4.73 | 1.48 | 88 | 59 | 5.03 | 1.46 | 5.49 | 4.97 |
| Kyle Wright | 2019 | 19 | 8.69 | 1.88 | 8.24 | 5.44 | 2020 | 37 | 4.39 | 1.38 | 64 | 38 | 5.21 | 1.55 | 7.11 | 5.33 |
| Gavin Stone | 2023 | 31 | 9.00 | 1.90 | 6.39 | 5.15 | 2024 | 78 | 4.23 | 1.33 | 82 | 140 | 3.53 | 1.21 | 7.44 | 4.02 |
