MLB Bets Today: Best MLB Bets and Props for Sunday, August 17
I'm homing in on two of the later games for Sunday's slate, banking on strong performances from four quality starting pitchers.
2025 Betting Record: 31-32-2 (-2.31 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 17-15 (-0.10 units)
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
This marquee NL West battle displays a pair of big names on the pitching docket for the series finale, as Padres RHP Yu Darvish and Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow are on the hill.
One has to dig just a bit below the surface to get an accurate feel for Darvish at the moment, as his ugly 5.61 ERA is largely the result of one poor outing against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium where he gave up eight earned runs across 3.1 innings. Otherwise, the veteran righty has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his other six starts, and a not-so-awful four in the other outing in that sample.
Darvish comes in on a roll, having pitched to a 2-0 record, 2.12 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 across the 17 innings covering his last three starts. Sunday, he faces a group of hitters who know him well, yet don't seem capable of consistently capitalizing on that familiarity. Current Dodgers bats own a collective .196/.268/.361 slash line against him in a very significant sample of 212 plate appearances.
On the other side, Glasnow could be just as tough a puzzle for the Friars to solve. The big right-hander has given up more than two earned runs just twice in 11 starts thus far, and he's allowed only 32 hits in 52 innings. Glasnow does have a 1.4 HR/9 that needs plenty of improvement, but he's also missing plenty of bats, as evidenced by his 10.9 K/9. He's holding either handedness of hitter to sub-.200 averages, and he's been excellent at home with a 2.15 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 across 37.2 innings.
Darvish has held the opposition to a .167 average and .231 OBP in the first inning, while Glasnow has pitched to respective .135 and .220 figures in that split, along with a 2.45 ERA. He's also held current Padres' hitters to a collective .128/.171/.205 slash across 82 total plate appearances.
I'm going to put some faith in the track record of both pitchers here for my two bets, one banking on a scoreless first and the other a low-scoring first five frames.
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Padres vs. Dodgers Best Bets
- Under 0.5 runs- 1st inning (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Under 4.5 runs- F5 (-132 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets Best Bets
This interleague set in the Big Apple wraps up with an intriguing George Kirby-Clay Holmes pitching matchup Sunday night.
The first two installments have run the gamut in terms of offense, as we had a 20-run outburst between the two clubs in Friday's opener that Seattle prevailed in by an 11-9 margin, followed by a 3-1 Mets victory Saturday. Given the talent of both pitchers, I expect the primetime finale to unfold more like the latter.
Kirby had a forgettable start to the season while allowing 11 earned runs over 8.2 innings in his first two trips to the mound, but he's subsequently generated an 8-3 record, 2.83 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 0.7 HR/9 over the 76.1 innings covering his next 13 starts. The 2019 first-round pick is delivering on his pedigree, and he has surrendered just two earned runs over his last three starts (19 innings).
Holmes has put together a solid season in his own right after coming across town from the Yankees, proving his mettle as a full-time starter with a 9-6 record, 3.71 ERA and 0.9 HR/9 in 24 starts. He's been about as good at Citi Field as on the road, and although the Mariners' hitters' collective career numbers against him look good on the surface, one of his principal tormentors has been Mitch Garver, who may not even be in the lineup and is having a rough season overall.
Otherwise, Holmes has notably held the dangerous quartet of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez to a 4-for-28 (.143) tally with zero extra-base hits and 12 strikeouts in his career.
Despite the talent in either lineup, I'm going to bank on each pitcher's strong body of work in the first inning (Kirby: 3.00 ERA, .196 BAA/ Holmes: 2.25 ERA, .227 BAA) to carry us to a scoreless first, and to a low-scoring first half of the game overall.
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Padres vs. Dodgers Best Bets
- Under 0.5 runs- 1st inning (-125 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Under 4.5 runs- F5 (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
MLB Best Bets Sunday Recap
- Padres-Dodgers Under 0.5 runs - 1st inning (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Padres-Dodgers Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-132 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Mariners-Mets Under 0.5 runs- 1st inning (-125 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Marines-Mets Under 4.5 runs- F5 (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
