Top MLB Betting Picks: August 20th Best Bets & Predictions
How are we getting down to the MLB homestretch already? It goes too fast. Let's cash some tickets before time runs out on the season.
Season record 27-29-1, -3.84 units
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Guardians at Diamondbacks
The barely in contention Guardians face a depleted DBacks team here in a battle of squads that have scant history with each other. Further adding to the mystery, Cleveland starts 24 year old Parker Messick making his MLB debut. The lefty ranks as the 12th best prospect in the Guardians system and 210th overall by our own James Anderson. He earned his way up to The Show by going on a bit of a roll lately in AAA ball. In his last 6 starts he has a 2.93 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 36 K's and just 6 BB's in 30.2 innings.
Arizona has a respectable 98 wRC+ vs. southpaws since the All-Star Break, but a bit of that was before they traded Eugenio Suarez and lefty masher Randal Grichuk, not to mention Josh Naylor. They also faced 2 lefty SP's in Coors. That's a long-winded way of saying the current iteration of this team does not profile well in this spot.
Ketel Marte is a switch-hitter who bats better from the left side, 138 career wRC+ vs. 114 from the right. Their other big remaining bat, Corbin Carroll, is a lefty with similar splits: 145 wRC+ vs. 119. Plus it takes a couple of good lefty platoon guys, Pavin Smith and Adrian Del Castillo, out of the lineup, and pops in a couple lesser righties, Tyler Locklear and probably Ildemaro Vargas.
The DBacks start Brandon Pfaadt. He's in a group of very talented arms that drive us Fantasy players nuts with their inconsistency. He also breaks the ERA estimators. He has a 5.08 ERA on the year, which overstates his effectiveness if you believe his Statcast-based disastrous xERA of 5.92, or understates according to his respectable 4.18 SIERA. Either way, it more about the wild volatility of the results. He failed to get an out in a May 31st start at home vs. the less-than-imposing Nats, giving up 8 earned runs, then followed that up with 6 ER in 3 innings in Atlanta. Then a month later he started hurling gems; 2 ER in 8 IP at San Diego followed by 0 ER in 7 IP vs. the Cardinals. Feeling good, right? Well two starts ago he yielded 11 hits to the Rockies in Arizona. The Road Rockies are the easiest assignment in MLB these days.
Cleveland fields a very middling lineup. Jose Ramirez is a superstar and Steven Kwan is a hit machine, but beyond that they are more pesky than great. There's a lot uncertainty here between which Pfaadt we get and the opposing SP making his debut. I'll roll with the rookie.
MLB Best Bets
- Guardians ML (+105 BetMGM)
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Giants at Padres
The slumping Giants have played a bit better these last few games. But no matter when or where they play, they struggle vs. lefties. They've gone 8-18-8 with a -36.1% ROi in F5's when facing lefty starters. They have a worst in MLB .212 average and 2nd worst 75 wRC+ vs .all southpaws on the season. And its trending the wrong way as those numbers are .208 and 70 since the All-Star break. Heliot Ramos is their only hitter above a 103 wRC+ vs. lefties this season and he's mired in an extended overall slump. His homer on Monday was his 1st since July 6th. Rafael Devers is one of the best batters in the game, but on his career he's a league average 99 wRC+. On the Giants he's had particularly ugly results. In a relatively small sample of 68 PA's, he's hit .161 with a whopping 38.2% K%.
Now granted they do not face the toughest task ever here. The Padres got JP Sears in the Mason Miller trade and gave him one start before deciding they'd seen enough and promptly sent him to AAA. It was a 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 hit clunker at depleted Arizona. On the season he's pitched to a 5.12 ERA and 1.31 ERA, mostly for the A's in their tough home park. He's not a strikeout guy as he has just a 19.7% career K%, 20.3% this season. He also gives up a lot of flies with a career 20.3 LA that's gone up to 22.4 this year. But that can actually play much better in San Diego than it did in the Sutter Health launching pad in Sacramento. And the Giants pose a particularly meek threat with a .339 SLG vs. lefties this season.
MLB Best Bets
- Padres F5 (-140 FanDuel)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Guardians ML (+105 BetMGM)
- Padres F5 (-140 FanDuel)
