Top MLB Betting Picks for August 15: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 ( -1.20 units)
Season 108-115-2 (-9.75 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Friday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Home Favorites - Astros -220 vs Orioles, Cubs -200 vs Pirates
Road Favorites - Dbacks -190 at Rockies
Totals - Dbacks vs Rockies 11.5-12.0, A's vs Angels 10.0, Rays/Giants 7.5, Rangers/Blue Jays 7.5
Line Movement - Cubs -32, Braves -14, Yankees -14, Dbacks -15, Dodgers -52
Bullpen Rankings as of 8.14.25 (xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Rays, Padres, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Angels, Pirates). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Rockies, Twins, Nationals, Orioles, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Astros, Royals, Red Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Betting Insights
The Red Sox have been dominant at home going 22-5 in their last 27 with a 5.2-3.1 average score and 2.1 runs per game differential. The Marlins have been strong road dogs all season, but recently they just 3-8 overall and 2-6 on the road.
Lucas Giolito has been a much better pitcher since early June, but he struggles against the better offensive teams (Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Padres). Most of his struggles have been on the road and in his last 4 home starts he has a 0.33 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP. Sandy Alcantara has struggled most of the year with a 7.71 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last 4 road starts.
Something that gets overlooked is that the Marlins played yesterday, while the Red Sox were off, so their bullpen is fully rested.
MLB Best Bets: Red Sox -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +135)
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Best Bets and Predictions
The biggest pitching mismatch on the slate has Framber Valdez against Brandon Young. Valdez is always someone I look to play ON at home because of his huge splits. The Astros are 19-3 in Valdez's last 22 starts as a home favorite. Opponents have scored 13 runs in Valdez's last 8 home starts.
Young is not a viable starting pitcher in the big leagues at this point, and the results prove it with a 6.70 ERA on the season .
The Astros are in a tight race for the AL West and the Wild Card so they will be focused to secure a key home win on Friday night.
MLB Best Bets: Astros -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Best Bets and Predictions
It is hard to get away from backing the Brewers in this run as they are 37-9 in their last 46 games, along with a 12 game winning streak. They have averaged nearly 8 runs per game in that stretch.
The Reds are playing great baseball as well and are now only 1 game back of the Mets in the National League Wild Card race. The Brewers lead the season series 5-2 but also are 24-9 in the last 33 between both teams.
Jacob Misiorowski is scheduled to start for Milwaukee but will be on a pitch count. Nick Martinez season long numbers are not good, but he has pitched better as of late. Regardless of who is on the mound, I do not see anyone slowing this Brewers lineup down.
MLB Best Bets: Brewers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +126); Brewers OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
MLB Picks Friday Recap
- Red Sox -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +135)
- Astros -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
- Brewers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +126)
- Brewers OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
- BONUS PICK: Braves/Guardians OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
