Friday's college hoops slate is lacking in quantity, but it makes up for it in quality. We've got a marquee showdown in the Big East, with the regular season conference title possibly at stake. Additionally, we also have a couple of other interesting matchups starring Mid-Majors. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Friday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Connecticut 
at St. John's 
These are the two undisputed best teams in the Big East, possessing elite numbers in many of the same categories. That said, closer inspection reveals some key differences that I believe will sway the outcome.
First, the Huskies are clearly better at shooting. UConn ranks 35th in effective field goal percentage, noticeably higher than St. John's ranking of 127th. Both are great from the perimeter, but the Huskies have made 57 percent of two-point attempts (48th), with the Red Storm making just 52 percent (168th). It's also worth noting that UConn has made a higher percentage of its three-point attempts than St. John's while attempting them at a higher frequency.
The other key difference is on the defensive end. St. John's has great stats in most areas, except defensive rebounding percentage, where it ranks 257th. This could be a problem, as UConn ranks 49th in offensive rebounding percentage and is consistently a threat for put-back baskets given its length and high two-point make percentage. To be fair, I'll point out that St. John's has improved its defensive rebounding numbers during conference play, although it's still hard to ignore its below-average mark for the whole season.
In contrast, the Huskies have elite defensive numbers across the board, especially in the paint. UConn's defense ranks among the top six teams nationally in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, three-point field goal percentage allowed (29 percent), and two-point field goal percentage allowed (45 percent). The Huskies also rank among the top 100 in turnovers and defensive rebounding, and all these strengths have carried through the conference season. UConn's defense leads the Big East in efficiency, two-point FG percentage allowed (45 percent), and block percentage, and is in the top three in turnovers and defensive rebounding.
Given a better shooting team and a superior defense, my money's on UConn to come away with a victory. I'm taking the Huskies.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -2.5
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Murray State 
at Southern Illinois 
The biggest liability in this matchup belongs to Southern Illinois' offense.
The Salukis have poor offensive stats across the board, ranking outside the top 210 teams in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and offensive rebounding percentage. Their biggest flaw of all is their inability to score from beyond the arc. Southern Illinois had made under 29 percent of three-point attempts on the season (355th), and combined with their low attempt rate, three-pointers account for just 19 percent of their total points, the third-lowest mark among all 365 D-1 teams. It's no surprise, then, to see that Southern Illinois scores almost 62 percent of its total points off two-pointers, the highest mark in the nation. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it's a foreboding trait entering Friday. Murray State has held opponents to 49 percent on two-point attempts (98th), including 50 percent against conference opponents, the third-best mark in the MVC.
At the other end of the court, both teams are usually at their best. Still, Murray State's offense is proving to be a dynamic unit regardless of the matchup. The Racers' offense ranks 61st in adjusted efficiency and ranks among the top 80 teams in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage (57 percent), and it ranks above SIU's defense in the same categories. These strengths have held up against league competition, as the Racers' offense ranks in the top three of the MVC in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free-throw attempt rate, two-point field goal percentage, and free-throw make percentage. No matter how you look at it, safe to say Murray State knows how to score in just about any way possible.
Given the significantly better offensive team in what is essentially a pick'em, I gotta go with Murray State. I'm running with the Racers on Friday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Murray State +1.5
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Bradley 
at Northern Iowa 
When Northern Iowa wins, it's usually on the strength of its defense. The Panthers' defense ranks 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, so it's usually tough to crack, although deeper analysis reveals some interesting insight.
Specifically, KenPom data suggest that Northern Iowa's defensive efficiency is strongly correlated with generating turnovers, to an extreme extent. For context, an increase in opponents' turnovers correlates to defensive efficiency to nearly the same extent as its effective field goal percentage allowed. This is a pertinent note in this matchup because Bradley's best skill is ball protection, ranking 13th nationally in offensive turnover percentage, including the league best during the conference season. Another interesting note about Northern Iowa is that, despite its usual defensive success, it's been vulnerable in the paint. The Panthers are allowing MVC opponents to make 54 percent of shots inside the arc, the second-worst mark in the league.
These weaknesses are important when going against Bradley because the Braves are a legitimate threat to score on any given offensive possession. Since the conference season began, Bradley's offense ranks among the top three MVC teams in efficiency, three-point field goal percentage (36 percent), and free-throw make percentage (74 percent).
In contrast, Northern Iowa typically has much more difficulty scoring. The Panthers' offense ranks outside the top 250 teams in efficiency, three-point field goal percentage (32 percent), and it's particularly dreadful near the rim and on the glass. Northern Iowa has the third-worst offensive rebounding percentage nationally and the 14th-worst free-throw attempt rate among all D-1 teams. Needless to say, it's hard to trust a team that struggles to score from the perimeter, seldom creates second-chance opportunities, and rarely makes trips to the charity stripe.
Bradley won the first game between these two teams back in early January, 75-69, and it's important to note that Northern Iowa actually shot the ball relatively well in that game. The Panthers made 50 percent of two-point attempts and 8-of-25 three-pointers (.320), more or less in line with their season averages. The rematch will take place in Cedar Falls, Iowa, but I'm betting the outcome will be the same, if not a close ball game. I'm taking the points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Bradley +3.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- UConn -2.5
- Murray State +1.5
- Bradley +3.5
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