This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
French Open: Cinderella Stories and Key Matchups in Round 3
The third round of the French Open continues Saturday from the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. The clock might not be ready to strike midnight just yet on a couple of Cinderella stories, while a former French Open finalist looks to pull off an upset and a crowd favorite tries to bounce back after an injury scare in his previous match.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
French Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Marketa Vondrousova (+150) vs. Jessica Pegula
A lack of match play heading into this tournament due to a three-month layoff from a shoulder injury hasn't seemed to bother Vondrousova too much, and she has now had two matches to shake off the rust. Vondrousova is generally the better clay-court player, having reached the final here in 2019 and the quarterfinals last year. The Czech lefty's variety and drop shots work well on this surface, while Pegula's flat strokes are better suited for hard courts, which is why the American has reached the quarterfinals or better five times at hard-court Grand Slams, but only once apiece on clay and grass. When Pegula made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2023, she lost to Vondrousova, who went on to win the tournament. That was their only previous matchup.
Henrique Rocha (+210) vs. Alexander Bublik
Both of these players are coming off improbable escapes from two-set deficits, as Rocha stunned Jakub Mensik 2-6, 1-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3, while Bublik stormed back to beat Alex de Minaur 2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2. The 62nd-ranked Bublik has been ranked as high as No. 17 and is a much more talented shot-maker than the 200th-ranked Rocha, but Rocha's full of confidence after winning three qualifying matches and two five-setters. The enigmatic Bublik often beats himself, which is why his record is a disappointing 9-13 in 2025, and he has remarked before that he hates playing on clay -- a surface on which his career winning percentage is just .429. Given the distinct possibility of a Bublik implosion, Rocha's Cinderella run might not be done just yet.
Honorable Mention
Joao Fonseca (+160) vs. Jack Draper
French Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Madison Keys (-300) vs. Sofia Kenin
Keys is a perfect 9-0 in Grand Slam play and 26-6 overall in 2025, as she has been among the top performers on the WTA Tour all year. The big-hitting American has never been more confident in big moments, and she has learned to play the percentages better in big moments rather than settling for risky shots. She leads the head-to-head against Kenin 3-1, and while Kenin won their only clay-court matchup, that came way back when they played for the first time in 2019, when Kenin was ascending toward the top 10. Kenin has since dropped off to No. 30 in the rankings, while Keys currently sits at No. 8. While Kenin has the skills to absorb Keys' pace, Keys' significant edge in focus and belief will likely be the difference here.
Lois Boisson (-185) vs. Elsa Jacquemot
These two 22-year-old French women ranked outside the top 100 have both thrilled the crowd with surprise runs to the third round. Boisson has looked much more impressive in getting there, upsetting No. 24 seed Elise Mertens -- who had made the third round or better in each of her previous eight French Open appearances -- 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 before adding a convincing 6-1, 6-2 win over Anhelina Kalinina. Jacquemot has beaten Maria Sakkari and Alycia Parks, both of whom have tendencies to just give matches away with errors. If both players maintain their level from the first two rounds, Boisson should be the one moving on.
Honorable Mention
Tallon Griekspoor (-500) vs. Ethan Quinn
French Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Arthur Fils (+120) vs. Andrey Rublev
There are questions about Fils' health after he appeared to be hampered by an injury during his five-set win over Jaume Munar in the second round, but the Frenchman's medicine appeared to kick in just in the nick of time, as he came back from a break down in the fifth set to win 7-6 (3), 7-6 (4), 2-6, 0-6, 6-4. A fully fit Fils would be the clear favorite in this match, as he has climbed to 14th in the rankings with a 21-10 record in 2025, while Rublev has dropped to 15th while going just 17-12. These two met on clay in Monte Carlo last month, and Fils claimed a routine 6-2, 6-3 win, avenging a three-set hard-court win by Rublev in 2024.
Cameron Norrie (-130) vs. Jacob Fearnley
Both of these players represent Great Britain and played college tennis at TCU, but Norrie is six years older and significantly more accomplished. The veteran lefty has been in the top 10 before and is no stranger to deep runs in Grand Slams, as he has reached the semifinals of Wimbledon and is into the third round of the French Open for the fourth time in the last five years. He won a first-round five-set thriller over Daniil Medvedev in the first round, so Norrie's battle-tested. Fearnley has had a much easier path to the first French Open third round of his career, beating the 138th-ranked shell of Stan Wawrinka in the first round before benefitting from Ugo Humbert retiring in the second set of their second-round match. Fearnley's ranked 55th while Norrie's 81st, but the latter's massive edge in big-match experience makes this Norrie's match to lose.
Honorable Mention
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (+100) vs. Hailey Baptiste
