Genesis Scottish Open Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads across the pond for this week's Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick. Previously a DP World Tour event, it became a co-sanctioned tournament in 2022 and includes the top-75 players from the DP World Tour's eligibility ranking. Scottie Scheffler headlines the field as the tournament favorite at +360 and it's a strong field ahead of next week's final major with all of the top-5 players in the world teeing-it-up. Last year, Robert MacIntyre (40-1 odds) won in his home country by one stroke over Adam Scott. Note the earlier than usual start time of 2 a.m. EST, so get your bets in early!
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 70, 7,282 yards
These are the average rankings of Scottish Open champions since 2022:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 8.0
- SG: Approach: 6.7
- SG: Around-the-Green: 26.0
- SG: Putting: 26.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 2.0
- Driving Distance: 18.3
- Driving Accuracy: 28.0
When we think of Scotland, links golf is what comes to mind and The Renaissance Club has a lot of links tendencies with its undulating terrain and pot bunkers. Along the coastline of the Fifth of Forth and North Sea, often windy conditions are a big defense for the course to go with thick fescue rough surrounding the fairways. Unlike a traditional par-70, there are three par-5s and five par-3s, and the par-5s are going to be the main scoring opportunities along with the driveable par-4 fifth hole. We can see from the stats above that ball-striking has played much more of a role than the short game in determining the winner, with distance also at more of a premium than accuracy as the terrain makes it difficult to hit fairways at a high percentage. I'll also be looking at good long iron players, as we'll see a lot of approach shots in the 175-225 yard range.
Scottish Open Standouts
The following players have the lowest scoring average at The Renaissance Club over the last three years:
- Rory McIlroy: 66.4
- Robert MacIntyre: 67.3
- Romain Langasque: 67.5
- Tom Kim: 67.8
- Xander Schauffele: 68.2
- Tommy Fleetwood: 68.2
McIlroy's birdie-birdie finish to win in windy conditions here in 2023 to beat MacIntyre by a shot will always be one of the most memorable moments in the event's history. MacIntyre got payback last year, so it's no surprise to see these two at the top of the list. Following a few uneventful performances, McIlroy played well last time out at the Travelers and should be considered a strong contender at 8-1 odds. Much, much farther down the odds board we find Langasque (250-1), who followed up his T25 with a solo third last year (also finished third at the Renaissance Club in 2019). We tend to see some less familiar names from the DP World Tour pop on the leaderboard here, and Langasque is someone to consider for a placement bet or as a low-cost DFS option due to his course history.
Flushers Only
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined across their last 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler: 2.17
- Daniel Berger: 1.44
- Collin Morikawa: 1.29
- Viktor Hovland: 1.22
- Ryan Gerard: 1.21
Scheffler continues to stand out from a statistical standpoint as he's gaining well over half a stroke per round more than anyone else with his ball striking. That's helped lead to nine consecutive top-10 finishes including three victories during that stretch. Scheffler ranked in the top-5 in SG: Off-the-Tee and approach at the Scottish Open in 2023 en route to a T3 result. Meanwhile, Hovland has shown good form with his long-game as well recently (primarily on approach), and was in contention to win at Oakmont before ultimately finishing solo third. The only concern is that he withdrew in the final round of his last start at the Travelers due to a neck injury. If healthy, he looks like a solid value at 40-1.
Genesis Scottish Open Bets: Outright Picks
Tommy Fleetwood (22-1)
Fleetwood has had some time to shake off his disappointing finish in Connecticut that saw him finish one short in his quest for his first PGA Tour victory. He lost in a playoff here to Aaron Rai in 2020 when this was a DP World Tour event, and has finished T6 or better twice since it became a co-sanctioned tournament.
Sam Burns (40-1)
It has been over three years since Burns has won an individual stroke play event, and he's too good for that drought to last much longer. He lost in a playoff in Canada and has finished in the top-20 in seven of his last eight events. Burns finished T19 in his most recent appearance here.
Ryan Fox (60-1)
This sure seems like some generous odds for a player that's won twice in his last six starts. Fox has spent several seasons playing primarily on the DPWT, so he'll be comfortable in this setting. He finished T12 at the event in 2023.
Genesis Scottish Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Maverick McNealy (5-1)
Is there anything that McNealy doesn't do well? He's emerged as one of the most well-rounded players on Tour. He finished T16 in his only appearance here in 2022 and has posted six top-10s this year, the most recent being a T5 in a signature event at Muirfield Village last month.
Aldrich Potgieter (15-2)
Potgieter withdrew following the third-round last weekend, but I'm assuming it was just for some extra rest after he won the week prior. He's never played here before, but his distance advantage combined with not being that wayward off the tee should make him a great course fit.
Eugenio Chacarra (10-1)
Chacarra was struggling on LIV the last two seasons, but you wouldn't know it from his play since. He posted top-10s in 3-of-4 Asian Tour events and picked up a win on the DPWT in March and is 19th in their season-long standings. The 25-year-old has good distance of plenty of upside.
Genesis Scottish Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Adam Scott (-110) over Sepp Straka
I don't have much confidence in Straka this week as he's missed both of his cuts at the event and has also missed the cut in each of his last two full-field events. On top of that, Scott finished one back here last year and is a good target for matchups having finished in the top half of the field in each of his last five starts, highlighted by a T12 at Oakmont.
Max Greyserman (-110) over Alex Noren
Two players trending in opposite directions, I'll go with the hot golfer in Greyserman, who has posted four top-25s across his last five events including a playoff loss in his last start. He finished a respectable T21 here last year. Meanwhile, Noren has struggled in his return with only one top-25 in six starts and has missed the cut in each of his last two full-field events.
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